Differences in carbon cycle and temperature projections from emission- and concentration-driven earth system model simulations
Differences in carbon cycle and temperature projections from emission- and concentration-driven earth system model simulations
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排放和浓度驱动的地球系统模型模拟的碳循环和温度预测差异
DOI：
10.5194/esdd-5-991-2014
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发表时间：
2014-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zeng Xiaodong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shao Pu;Xubin Zeng;Zeng Xiaodong
抽象的。预测和规定的大气CO2浓度（[CO2]）对碳吸收和温度的影响进行了研究，使用所有8个地球系统模式（ESM）与耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的相关输出变量。在RCP8.5情景下，在排放驱动的ESM中，预计2100年的[CO2]差异在-19.7至+207.3 ppm之间。相互作用浓度的纳入也增加了全球变暖的范围，计算为2081-2100年和1850-1869/1861-1880年之间的20年平均差异，从浓度驱动模拟中的2.36 K（即范围从3.11到5.47 K）到排放驱动模拟中的3.51 K，增加了49%。从1980-2011年观测到的全球[CO2]的季节性振幅约为8个排放驱动型ESM的1.2-5.3倍，而[CO2]的季节性在浓度驱动型ESM中被简单忽略，这表明该领域的ESM迫切需要改进。温度-浓度反馈参数α对[CO2]（例如，1980-2005年与2075-2100年）比[CO2]的处理方式（即，预后与处方）更敏感。通过使用由温度变化与[CO2]对数的线性回归计算的更合适的参数α'，可以大大降低这种灵敏度。然而，α和α'的模型间相对变化仍然很大，这表明需要更详细的研究来理解并希望减少这些差异。
Abstract. The influence of prognostic and prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) on the carbon uptake and temperature is investigated using all eight Earth System Models (ESMs) with relevant output variables from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the projected [CO2] differences in 2100 vary from −19.7 to +207.3 ppm in emission-driven ESMs. Incorporation of the interactive concentrations also increases the range of global warming, computed as the 20 year average difference between 2081–2100 and 1850–1869/1861–1880, by 49% from 2.36 K (i.e. ranging from 3.11 to 5.47 K) in the concentration-driven simulations to 3.51 K in the emission-driven simulations. The observed seasonal amplitude of global [CO2] from 1980–2011 is about 1.2–5.3 times as large as those from the eight emission-driven ESMs, while the [CO2] seasonality is simply neglected in concentration-driven ESMs, suggesting the urgent need of ESM improvements in this area. The temperature-concentration feedback parameter α is more sensitive to [CO2] (e.g. during 1980–2005 versus 2075–2100) than how [CO2] is handled (i.e. prognostic versus prescribed). This sensitivity can be substantially reduced by using a more appropriate parameter α' computed from the linear regression of temperature change versus that of the logarithm of [CO2]. However, the inter-model relative variations of both α and α' remain large, suggesting the need of more detailed studies to understand and hopefully reduce these discrepancies.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
K. Zickfeld;M. Eby;A. Weaver;K. Alexander;E. Crespin;N. Edwards;A. Eliseev;G. Feulner;T. Fichefet-T.
通讯作者：
K. Zickfeld;M. Eby;A. Weaver;K. Alexander;E. Crespin;N. Edwards;A. Eliseev;G. Feulner;T. Fichefet-T.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.5194/esd-5-423-2014
发表时间：
2014-12
期刊：
Earth System Dynamics Discussions
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
F. Zhao;N. Zeng
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Friedlingstein, Pierre;Meinshausen, Malte;Knutti, Reto
通讯作者：
Knutti, Reto
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Boer, G. J.;Arora, V. K.
通讯作者：
Arora, V. K.