Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts.
Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Strauss BH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rasmussen DJ;Kulp S;Kopp RE;Oppenheimer M;Strauss BH
气候和海平面科学家经常使用各种气候变化情景下当代极端海平面（ESL）频率或高度变化的估计值，以帮助传达有关海平面上升的社会关注的物理基础。ESL的变化（即，这些指标在与人类系统和自然环境受到的显著影响挂钩时，可为决策者、利益攸关方和公众提供有用的信息。虽然灾害的变化往往与当地规模的影响挂钩，但总体全球汇总指标通常缺乏有助于将灾害转化为影响的当地风险和脆弱性背景。在传达预计ESL频率超过关键阈值的时间时，也需要将危害的变化置于背景中，例如ESL高于保护基础设施的设计高度基准的年份（例如，100年水位）预计将在该基础设施的使用寿命内实现。我们提出了具体的例子，证明需要这样的背景下使用一个简单的洪水暴露模型，当地海平面上升的预测和人口暴露估计414个全球城市。我们建议区域和全球气候评估报告综合全球、区域和地方对沿海风险的观点，同时解决灾害、脆弱性和暴露问题。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6获得。
Estimates of changes in the frequency or height of contemporary extreme sea levels (ESLs) under various climate change scenarios are often used by climate and sea level scientists to help communicate the physical basis for societal concern regarding sea level rise. Changes in ESLs (i.e., the hazard) are often represented using various metrics and indicators that, when anchored to salient impacts on human systems and the natural environment, provide useful information to policy makers, stakeholders, and the general public. While changes in hazards are often anchored to impacts at local scales, aggregate global summary metrics generally lack the context of local exposure and vulnerability that facilitates translating hazards into impacts. Contextualizing changes in hazards is also needed when communicating the timing of when projected ESL frequencies cross critical thresholds, such as the year in which ESLs higher than the design height benchmark of protective infrastructure (e.g., the 100-year water level) are expected to occur within the lifetime of that infrastructure. We present specific examples demonstrating the need for such contextualization using a simple flood exposure model, local sea level rise projections, and population exposure estimates for 414 global cities. We suggest regional and global climate assessment reports integrate global, regional, and local perspectives on coastal risk to address hazard, vulnerability and exposure simultaneously. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Dahl KA;Fitzpatrick MF;Spanger-Siegfried E
通讯作者：
Spanger-Siegfried E
中国沿海气候变暖1.5℃和2.0℃时极端海平面的变化
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Feng, Jianlong;Li, Huan;Liu, Kexiu
通讯作者：
Liu, Kexiu
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1817205116
发表时间：
2019-06-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Bamber, Jonathan L.;Oppenheimer, Michael;Cooke, Roger M.
通讯作者：
Cooke, Roger M.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Coles, SG;Powell, EA
通讯作者：
Powell, EA
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Arns A;Dangendorf S;Jensen J;Talke S;Bender J;Pattiaratchi C
通讯作者：
Pattiaratchi C