Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease.

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.jalz.2018.03.005
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发表时间:
2018-08
期刊:
Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Abdalla N
Abdalla N
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Brookmeyer R;Abdalla N

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终生风险是指一个人在一生中进展为阿尔茨海默病的可能性。在这里,我们报告了对阿尔茨海默病终生和十年风险的第一次估计,这一估计考虑了年龄、性别和临床前疾病的生物标志物测试。我们使用了一个多状态模型来描述疾病过程和美国的死亡率。阿尔茨海默病的终生风险因年龄、性别和个人的临床前或临床疾病状态而有很大差异。例如,仅患有淀粉样变性的女性90岁和65岁的终生风险分别为8.4%和29.3%。85岁以下有轻度认知障碍、淀粉样变性和神经变性的人患阿尔茨海默病的终生风险大于50%。大多数临床前阿尔茨海默病患者在其一生中不会患上阿尔茨海默病。终生风险有助于解释AD生物标记物筛查试验的临床意义。
Lifetime risks are the probabilities of progressing to AD dementia during ones’ lifespan. Here we report the first estimates of the lifetime and ten-year risks of AD dementia that account for age, gender and biomarker tests for preclinical disease. We used a multistate model for the disease process together with U.S. death rates. Lifetime risks of AD dementia vary considerably by age, gender and the pre-clinical or clinical disease state of the individual. For example, the lifetime risks for a female with only amyloidosis are 8.4% for a 90 year old and 29.3% for a 65 year old. Persons younger than age 85 with mild cognitive impairment, amyloidosis and neurodegeneration have lifetime risks of AD dementia greater than 50%. Most persons with preclinical AD will not develop AD dementia during their lifetimes. Lifetime risks help interpret the clinical significance of biomarker screening tests for AD.
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