Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods.
Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-32658-x
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发表时间：
2018-09-27
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Delevaux JMS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson TR;Fletcher CH;Barbee MM;Romine BM;Lemmo S;Delevaux JMS
规划社区对海平面上升的适应能力（SLR）需要有关海平面上升灾害将在何时、何地以及如何影响沿海地区的信息。我们通过模拟对夏威夷沿海基础设施、社区和生态系统构成经常性威胁的物理过程（包括潮汐强迫的直接海洋和地下水洪水、季节性海浪淹没和慢性海岸侵蚀），增强了被动洪水制图（所谓的“浴缸”方法）。我们发现，根据位置和单反场景，“浴缸”方法单独忽略了暴露于一种或多种危害的总土地面积的35 - 54%。我们得出的结论是，对包括波浪和侵蚀在内的动态过程进行建模对于稳健的SLR脆弱性评估至关重要。结果还表明，随着海平面上升，沿海土地暴露在更高的洪水深度和水流速度下。低洼沿海平原的普遍存在导致当海平面超过临界海拔~0.3或0.6 m时，土地暴露于危险的迅速增加，具体取决于位置。在约1米的单反上，大约是现代海滩总面积的7倍的土地暴露在一种或多种危险之中。预计的持续单反影响的范围、幅度和速率的增加表明，迫切需要立即进行长期规划。
Planning community resilience to sea level rise (SLR) requires information about where, when, and how SLR hazards will impact the coastal zone. We augment passive flood mapping (the so-called “bathtub” approach) by simulating physical processes posing recurrent threats to coastal infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems in Hawai‘i (including tidally-forced direct marine and groundwater flooding, seasonal wave inundation, and chronic coastal erosion). We find that the “bathtub” approach, alone, ignores 35–54 percent of the total land area exposed to one or more of these hazards, depending on location and SLR scenario. We conclude that modeling dynamic processes, including waves and erosion, is essential to robust SLR vulnerability assessment. Results also indicate that as sea level rises, coastal lands are exposed to higher flood depths and water velocities. The prevalence of low-lying coastal plains leads to a rapid increase in land exposure to hazards when sea level exceeds a critical elevation of ~0.3 or 0.6 m, depending on location. At ~1 m of SLR, land that is roughly seven times the total modern beach area is exposed to one or more hazards. Projected increases in extent, magnitude, and rate of persistent SLR impacts suggest an urgency to engage in long-term planning immediately.
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影响因子：
2.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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