Medium- and long-term development path of natural gas consumption in China: Based on a multi-model comparison framework
Medium- and long-term development path of natural gas consumption in China: Based on a multi-model comparison framework
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中国天然气消费中长期发展路径：基于多模型比较框架
DOI：
10.1016/j.ngib.2021.07.004
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发表时间：
2021-08
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Yu Ding
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hongbo Duan;Xu Tang;Kaipeng Ren;Yu Ding
天然气作为一种相对清洁的化石能源，在碳中和背景下将面临严峻的不确定性。回顾天然气消费的中长期发展趋势，是更好地认识天然气现状，确保天然气工业可持续发展的前提。本文以8个具有代表性的综合评价模型（CE 3 METL、DNE 21+、IPAC、AIM/CGE、IMAGE、REMIND、WITCH和POLES）为基础，建立了多模型比较框架。在此基础上，探讨了不同气候政策情景下中国一次能源消费总量和天然气消费量的中长期演变趋势。此外，还对2030年、2045年、2060年等关键时间节点进行了对比分析。并取得了以下研究成果。首先，大多数模型的预测结果表明，中国在2060年的一次能源消费总量将低于2019年的水平，除了国家确定的贡献（NDC）情景。其次，到2060年碳中和目标年，NDC、2.0 °C和1.5 °C情景下的天然气消费跨模式平均水平分别为6943 × 108 m3、4342 × 108 m3和2502 × 108 m3。第三，在1.5 °C情景下，一次能源消费总量的下降将从2020年开始开始，这意味着需要更快的技术进步和更有效的“助推”政策组合。第四，在2.0 ℃的温控目标下，2060年天然气消费量占中国一次能源消费的比重约为13.6%，在更严格的1.5 ℃情景下，这一比重将下降至9%。综上所述，多模型比较结果可以更全面地呈现2020-2060年中国一次能源消费总量和天然气消费量及其占比的不同发展路径，为制定气候变化挑战下天然气产业中长期政策和战略提供支持。
As a kind of relatively clean fossil energy, natural gas will face severe uncertainties in the background of carbon neutrality. Reviewing the medium- and long-term development trend of natural gas consumption is the prerequisite to better understanding the status of natural gas and ensure the sustainable development of natural gas industry. In this paper, a multi-model comparison framework is established on the basis of 8 representative integrated assessment models (CE3METL, DNE21+, IPAC, AIM/CGE, IMAGE, REMIND, WITCH and POLES). Then, the medium- and long-term evolution trend of China's total primary energy consumption and natural gas consumption in different scenarios of climate policy is discussed. In addition, comparative analysis is conducted on key time nodes such as 2030, 2045 and 2060. And the following research results are obtained. Firstly, the prediction results of most models indicate that China's total primary energy consumption in 2060 will be lower than the level in 2019 except for the scenario of national determined contribution (NDC). Secondly, by 2060, the carbon neutrality goal year, the cross-model average level of natural gas consumption under the NDC, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C scenarios will be 6943 × 108m3, 4342 × 108m3and 2502 × 108m3, respectively. Thirdly, under the 1.5 °C scenario, the decrease of total primary energy consumption shall begin in 2020, which means that faster technological progress and more effective combination of “nudge” policies are needed. Fourthly, under the temperature control goal of 2.0 °C, natural gas consumption will account for about 13.6% of China's primary energy consumption in 2060, and this proportion will drop to 9% under the stricter 1.5 °C scenario. In conclusion, the multi-model comparison results can present different development paths of China's total primary energy consumption and natural gas consumption and its proportion during 2020–2060 more comprehensively, so as to provide support for formulating the medium- and long-term policies and strategies of natural gas industry under the challenge of climate change.
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影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Yeli Zeng;Cong Dong;M. Höök;Jinhua Sun;Danyang Shi
通讯作者：
Yeli Zeng;Cong Dong;M. Höök;Jinhua Sun;Danyang Shi
DOI：
10.1155/2020/3257328
发表时间：
2020-03
期刊：
Complex.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chengli Zheng;Wen-ze Wu;Jianming Jiang;Qi Li
通讯作者：
Chengli Zheng;Wen-ze Wu;Jianming Jiang;Qi Li
影响因子：
9
作者：
N. Zhou;D. Fridley;N. Khanna;Jing Ke;Michael Mcneil;M. Levine
通讯作者：
N. Zhou;D. Fridley;N. Khanna;Jing Ke;Michael Mcneil;M. Levine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Noel Healy;John Barry
通讯作者：
Noel Healy;John Barry
DOI：
10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_13
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Fujimori;T. Hasegawa;T. Masui
通讯作者：
S. Fujimori;T. Hasegawa;T. Masui