Phylodynamics reveals the role of human travel and contact tracing in controlling the first wave of COVID-19 in four island nations.
Phylodynamics reveals the role of human travel and contact tracing in controlling the first wave of COVID-19 in four island nations.
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DOI：
10.1093/ve/veab052
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Welch D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Douglas J;Mendes FK;Bouckaert R;Xie D;Jiménez-Silva CL;Swanepoel C;de Ligt J;Ren X;Storey M;Hadfield J;Simpson CR;Geoghegan JL;Drummond AJ;Welch D
新西兰、澳大利亚、冰岛和台湾都成功控制了它们的第一波冠状病毒病2019年(新冠肺炎)。作为岛屿，它们是探索国际旅行和人类流动对新冠肺炎传播影响的极好案例研究。我们使用了一系列强有力的系统动力学方法和基因组亚采样策略来推断这四个国家的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2的流行病史。我们将这些结果与新西兰卫生部通过接触者追踪战略确定的传播集群进行了比较。在大流行的早期阶段，我们估计新冠肺炎的有效繁殖数量为1-1.4个，并显示由于人类行动受到限制，它下降到1以下。我们还表明，这种疾病曾多次传入每个国家，随着2020年3月中旬国际旅行的减少，引入速度明显放缓。最后，我们确认，通过标准健康监测战略确定的新西兰传播聚集性与基因组数据所定义的基本一致。我们已经展示了基因组数据和计算生物学方法的使用如何能够帮助卫生官员确定病毒流行的流行病学特征和进行接触者追踪。
New Zealand, Australia, Iceland, and Taiwan all saw success in controlling their first waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). As islands, they make excellent case studies for exploring the effects of international travel and human movement on the spread of COVID-19. We employed a range of robust phylodynamic methods and genome subsampling strategies to infer the epidemiological history of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in these four countries. We compared these results to transmission clusters identified by the New Zealand Ministry of Health by contact tracing strategies. We estimated the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 as 1–1.4 during early stages of the pandemic and show that it declined below 1 as human movement was restricted. We also showed that this disease was introduced many times into each country and that introductions slowed down markedly following the reduction of international travel in mid-March 2020. Finally, we confirmed that New Zealand transmission clusters identified via standard health surveillance strategies largely agree with those defined by genomic data. We have demonstrated how the use of genomic data and computational biology methods can assist health officials in characterising the epidemiology of viral epidemics and for contact tracing.
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影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Kühnert D;Stadler T;Vaughan TG;Drummond AJ
通讯作者：
Drummond AJ
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Draper, Anthony D. K.;Dempsey, Karen E.;Krause, Vicki L.
通讯作者：
Krause, Vicki L.
DOI：
10.3961/jpmph.20.076
发表时间：
2020-05-01
期刊：
Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi
影响因子：
--
作者：
Alimohamadi, Yousef;Taghdir, Maryam;Sepandi, Mojtaba
通讯作者：
Sepandi, Mojtaba
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Chinazzi, Matteo;Davis, Jessica T.;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
De Maio N;Wu CH;O'Reilly KM;Wilson D
通讯作者：
Wilson D