Herbarium specimens can reveal impacts of climate change on plant phenology; a review of methods and applications.
Herbarium specimens can reveal impacts of climate change on plant phenology; a review of methods and applications.
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作者：
Jones CA;Daehler CC
植物物候学研究为近期气候变化的大规模响应提供了一些最好的证据。在过去的十年中，有三十多项研究利用植物标本馆标本来分析开花物候随时间的变化，尽管迄今为止普遍缺乏对热带环境的研究。在这篇综述中，我们总结了迄今为止使用的方法和应用。生殖植物物候学分析主要采用年平均花期和年首次花期两种统计方法，但平均花期被证明是一种更为稳健的统计方法。采用两种回归模型对花期、温度和时间的相关性进行了检验：花期按年回归和花期按温度回归。大多数研究通过平均开花日期前三个月的温度来分析温度的影响。平均而言，已发表的研究使用每个物种55个植物标本来表征物候变化，但在许多情况下使用的标本较少。地理空间网格数据越来越多地被用于确定植物标本馆标本采集地点的平均温度，从而可以测试物候和气候之间更精细的对应关系。多项研究表明，从植物标本馆标本数据得出的推论与系统收集的实地观察结果相当。了解物候对气候变化的响应是认识到对更高营养水平和大规模生态系统过程的影响的关键一步。随着世界范围内植物标本馆的数字化程度越来越高，越来越多的数据可以用于未来的研究。随着全球气温的持续上升，植物标本馆标本有望成为分析植物对气候变化响应的重要资源。
Studies in plant phenology have provided some of the best evidence for large-scale responses to recent climate change. Over the last decade, more than thirty studies have used herbarium specimens to analyze changes in flowering phenology over time, although studies from tropical environments are thus far generally lacking. In this review, we summarize the approaches and applications used to date. Reproductive plant phenology has primarily been analyzed using two summary statistics, the mean flowering day of year and first-flowering day of year, but mean flowering day has proven to be a more robust statistic. Two types of regression models have been applied to test for associations between flowering, temperature and time: flowering day regressed on year and flowering day regressed on temperature. Most studies analyzed the effect of temperature by averaging temperatures from three months prior to the date of flowering. On average, published studies have used 55 herbarium specimens per species to characterize changes in phenology over time, but in many cases fewer specimens were used. Geospatial grid data are increasingly being used for determining average temperatures at herbarium specimen collection locations, allowing testing for finer scale correspondence between phenology and climate. Multiple studies have shown that inferences from herbarium specimen data are comparable to findings from systematically collected field observations. Understanding phenological responses to climate change is a crucial step towards recognizing implications for higher trophic levels and large-scale ecosystem processes. As herbaria are increasingly being digitized worldwide, more data are becoming available for future studies. As temperatures continue to rise globally, herbarium specimens are expected to become an increasingly important resource for analyzing plant responses to climate change.
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