Climate mitigation sustains agricultural research and development expenditure returns for maize yield improvement in developing countries
Climate mitigation sustains agricultural research and development expenditure returns for maize yield improvement in developing countries
复制标题
减缓气候变化可维持发展中国家提高玉米产量的农业研发支出回报
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acc543
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Iizumi Toshichika
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yoshida Ryuhei;Iizumi Toshichika
近几十年来，政府在农业研究与开发（R&D）方面的支出在提高作物产量方面发挥了重要作用。然而，研究表明，与未变暖的气候相比，气候变暖的年产量增长率将下降。本文利用以社会经济和气候情景为输入的全球网格化作物模型模拟，介绍了71个玉米生产国农业研发支出（称为产量响应）增加10亿美元所导致的预测气候如何改变玉米产量增益。在本世纪中叶（2041-2060年）低变暖情景下（共享社会经济路径：SSP126），各国之间的产量响应中值估计在低收入组最高，为27.2%，其次是中低收入组6.6%，高收入组1.0%，中高收入组0.1%。在高变暖情景下（SSP585），低收入群体（低收入和中低收入）的预估中位数产量响应约为低变暖情景下的一半：低收入群体27.2%→15.6%，中低收入群体6.6%→1.7%，高收入群体1.0%→0.6%。对于中高收入群体来说，采用高收入（高收入和中高收入）群体已经使用的高产技术和管理的空间有限，即使继续进行研发投资（0.1%→- 0.2%），气候变化的负面影响也无法抵消，预计产量也会下降。即使研发支出以相同的价值增加，预期产量的增加将取决于未来的变暖水平。这一发现表明，减缓气候变化是维持发展中国家农业研发投资收益的先决条件。
Governmental expenditure on agricultural research and development (R&D) has played a substantial role in increasing crop yields in recent decades. However, studies suggest that annual yield growth rates would decline in a warming climate compared to that in a non-warming climate. Here, we present how projected climate could alter maize yield gain owing to a US$ 1 billion increase in agricultural R&D expenditure (referred to as yield response) for 71 maize-producing countries using global gridded crop model simulations with socioeconomic and climate scenarios as inputs. For the middle of this century (2041–2060) under the low warming scenario (shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP126), the median yield response between countries is estimated to be the highest at 27.2% in the low-income group, followed by 6.6% in the lower-middle-income group, 1.0% in the high-income group, and 0.1% in upper-middle-income group. The projected median yield response for lower (the low- and lower-middle)-income groups under the high warming scenario (SSP585) was approximately half than that under the low warming scenario: 27.2% → 15.6% for the low-income, 6.6% → 1.7% for the lower-middle-income, and 1.0% → 0.6% for the high-income groups. For the upper-middle-income group, where there is limited room for adopting high-yielding technology and management already being used in higher (the high- and higher-middle)-income groups, the negative impacts of climate change cannot be offset and yields are projected to decline, even with continued R&D investments (0.1% → –0.2%). Even if the R&D expenditures increase at the same value, expected yield gains will depend on future warming levels. This finding suggests that climate mitigation is a prerequisite for maintaining the yield returns from agricultural R&D investments in developing countries.
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影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel;Ault, Toby R.;Lobel, David B.
通讯作者：
Lobel, David B.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Deryng, Delphine;Conway, Declan;Warren, Rachel
通讯作者：
Warren, Rachel
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
O'Neill, Brian C.;Kriegler, Elmar;van Vuuren, Detlef P.
通讯作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Ruhul Salim;Kamrul Hassan;S. Rahman
通讯作者：
S. Rahman
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8489.2010.00514.x
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
SRPN: Food Production (Topic)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ruhul Salim;N. Islam
通讯作者：
N. Islam