Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.
Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0191011
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Watters GM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klein ES;Hill SL;Hinke JT;Phillips T;Watters GM
气候变化对海洋生态系统及其提供的服务构成威胁，减少捕捞压力是减轻对海洋生物群的总体影响的一个备选办法。我们使用最低限度的现实生态系统模型来研究海洋变暖对南极磷虾（Euphausia superba）生长的预计影响可能如何影响斯科舍海的磷虾和依赖性捕食者（鲸鱼、企鹅、海豹和鱼类）的种群。我们还调查了在21世纪世纪的不同时间点通过减少磷虾捕捞来减轻捕食者枯竭风险的潜力。预计海洋变暖对磷虾生物量的影响在北方斯科舍海最强，个体磷虾的质量下降≥40%。预测还表明，磷虾生物量有25%的可能性将下降到既定的消耗阈值（未受影响水平的75%）以下，从而对一些捕食者种群造成风险，特别是企鹅。企鹅的平均丰度下降了30%，其未受影响的水平，高达50%的机会下降到耗尽阈值以下。在目前允许的捕捞率下，模拟磷虾捕捞进一步增加了枯竭的风险，停止捕捞在一定程度上抵消了我们模型中与海洋变暖相关的风险增加。这些结果因地点和物种组而异。在较小的空间尺度上的风险降低也不同于区域一级的风险降低，这表明某些捕食者种群可能比其他种群更容易受到磷虾生物量未来变化的影响。然而，对捕食者的影响并不总是直接映射到磷虾。我们的研究结果表明，在适当的空间尺度上确定脆弱的海洋种群和有针对性的保护措施的重要性，以及空间结构化管理的潜力，以避免加剧与海洋温度上升相关的风险。这可能有助于在不确定的未来平衡海洋生态系统服务之间的权衡。
Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.
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