Analysis of the spatial variation and identification of factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity based on the cloud model
Analysis of the spatial variation and identification of factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity based on the cloud model
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基于云模型的水资源承载力空间变化分析及影响因素识别
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-018-1957-x
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发表时间：
2018-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
W Pei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K Cheng;Q Fu;J Meng;TX Li;W Pei
为了客观分析水资源承载力对区域可持续发展的影响，以黑龙江省为例进行了研究。以水资源系统协调发展为重点，选取16个指标，建立了基于指标的水资源承载力评价体系。此外，根据指标值，采用模糊组合赋权法确定初始值。利用云模型客观地生成水资源承载力评价等级，并分析了研究区水资源承载力的时空演变规律。利用障碍度定量分析了各指标对承载力的约束关系。本研究将水资源承载力分为五个评价等级：I级（[0.01，0.21]）、II级。（[0.21，0.37]）、水平III（[0.37，0.47]）、水平IV（[0.47，0.63]）和水平V（[0.63，0.82]）。both.social确定13个观测点的水资源承载力时，其趋势与经济发展趋势一致，表明评价标准具有较高的可信度。影响水资源承载力的主要因素也发生了变化，1999 - 2007年，灌溉面积、单位面积水资源量和人均国内生产总值是主要影响因素，2008 - 2014年，农业水污染指数、人口密度和工业废水达标排放率是主要影响因素。此外，1999 - 2014年间，生态环境逐渐成为制约水资源承载力的主要子系统。
To objectively analyze the effect of the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC).on sustainable regional development, a case study of Heilongjiang Province, China, is.conducted. With a focus on the coordinated development of the water resources system, 16.indices are selected to establish an index-based WRCC evaluation system. In addition, based.on the index values, initial values are obtained using a fuzzy combined weighting method. The.WRCC evaluation levels are objectively generated using cloud model, and the temporal and.spatial evolution of the WRCC in the study area is analyzed. The obstacle degree is used to.analyze quantitatively the restraint relationship of each index to the carrying capacity. The.present study classifies the WRCC into five evaluation levels: level I ([0.01, 0.21]), level II.([0.21, 0.37]), level III ([0.37, 0.47]), level IV ([0.47, 0.63]), and level V ([0.63, 0.82]). When.determining the WRCC of each of the 13 observation points, the trend is consistent with both.social and economic development, indicating that the evaluation criteria have a high degree of credibility. The main influencing factors of the WRCC also change, between 1999 and 2007,.the irrigation coverage, amount of water resources per unit area, and gross domestic product.per capita were the main factors, between 2008 and 2014, the agricultural water pollution.index, population density, and percentage of industrial wastewater discharge compliant with.consent conditions were the main factors. In addition, between 1999 and 2014, the ecological.environment gradually became the main subsystem that limits the WRCC.
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影响因子：
0.3
作者：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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