Drivers of Infectious Disease Seasonality: Potential Implications for COVID-19.
Drivers of Infectious Disease Seasonality: Potential Implications for COVID-19.
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传染病季节性的驱动因素：对COVID-19的潜在影响
DOI：
10.1177/0748730420987322
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Helm B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kronfeld-Schor N;Stevenson TJ;Nickbakhsh S;Schernhammer ES;Dopico XC;Dayan T;Martinez M;Helm B
自2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的病原体严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）出现以来，已经过去了不到一年。自COVID-19出现以来，其成为季节性复发疾病的可能性存在很大的不确定性。包括地方性人类冠状病毒在内的许多传染病在一年中各不相同。它们显示了广泛的季节性波形，时间（相位）和振幅，这取决于地理区域。这种模式的驱动因素主要是从流行病学的角度研究的，重点是天气和行为，但补充的见解出现在动物，包括人类的季节性生理研究。因此，我们采取多学科的方法来整合通常不同领域的知识。首先，我们回顾了传染病季节性的环境和行为驱动因素的流行病学证据。随后，我们从时间生物学的角度讨论了可能影响感染性疾病易感性、发病率和死亡率的宿主内变化。基于光周期，circannual和比较人类数据，我们不仅确定了有前途的未来途径，但也强调需要在动物模型中进行进一步的研究。我们的初步评估是，宿主免疫季节性需要与天气和人类行为一起评估，作为可能导致COVID-19季节性的因素，这些驱动因素的相对重要性需要进一步调查。预测传染病季节性的一个主要挑战是人类引起的迄今可预测的地球季节性的快速变化，我们在最后的展望部分回顾了其影响。我们的结论是，一个积极的多学科的方法是有必要预测，减轻和预防季节性传染病在我们复杂的，不断变化的人地系统。
Not 1 year has passed since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its emergence, great uncertainty has surrounded the potential for COVID-19 to establish as a seasonally recurrent disease. Many infectious diseases, including endemic human coronaviruses, vary across the year. They show a wide range of seasonal waveforms, timing (phase), and amplitudes, which differ depending on the geographical region. Drivers of such patterns are predominantly studied from an epidemiological perspective with a focus on weather and behavior, but complementary insights emerge from physiological studies of seasonality in animals, including humans. Thus, we take a multidisciplinary approach to integrate knowledge from usually distinct fields. First, we review epidemiological evidence of environmental and behavioral drivers of infectious disease seasonality. Subsequently, we take a chronobiological perspective and discuss within-host changes that may affect susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality from infectious diseases. Based on photoperiodic, circannual, and comparative human data, we not only identify promising future avenues but also highlight the need for further studies in animal models. Our preliminary assessment is that host immune seasonality warrants evaluation alongside weather and human behavior as factors that may contribute to COVID-19 seasonality, and that the relative importance of these drivers requires further investigation. A major challenge to predicting seasonality of infectious diseases are rapid, human-induced changes in the hitherto predictable seasonality of our planet, whose influence we review in a final outlook section. We conclude that a proactive multidisciplinary approach is warranted to predict, mitigate, and prevent seasonal infectious diseases in our complex, changing human-earth system.
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影响因子：
3.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
Zhuang X
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