Landscape predictions of western balsam bark beetle activity implicate warm temperatures, a longer growing season, and drought in widespread irruptions across British Columbia
Landscape predictions of western balsam bark beetle activity implicate warm temperatures, a longer growing season, and drought in widespread irruptions across British Columbia
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对西部香脂树皮甲虫活动的景观预测表明，不列颠哥伦比亚省大范围的洪水泛滥导致气温升高、生长季节延长和干旱
DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120047
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
A. Carroll
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Howe;Lucas Peng;A. Carroll
气候变暖和干旱导致世界范围内森林昆虫的空前入侵。改变的气候制度有可能让原生森林昆虫表达新的行为，并扩大在纬度和海拔超过其假设的耐热性。然而，解开新的行为和范围扩张的驱动程序是困难的，由于跨标量的相互作用，决定森林昆虫种群动态。我们调查了西部香脂树皮甲虫（DryocococoalumconfususSwaine），经历间歇性的，持久的，但低的严重程度爆发在亚高山冷杉（毛果冷杉钩）森林的入侵动态。我们汇编了1998年至2019年加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的数据，分辨率为1和16 km 2，以描述甲虫爆发的时空结构，预测景观对爆发的敏感性，根据生物气候驱动因素解释爆发发生的时间，探索甲虫种群是否表现出自我驱动的增长，并确定爆发的程度是否增加。总体而言，我们发现，爆发发生在离散的集群和同步的距离为10-25公里。此外，我们发现，景观对甲虫爆发的敏感性最好用纬度 * 海拔解释（即，纬度[m]和海拔[m]的乘积Z-标准化）和冷杉体积（m3/ha; >17.5 cm尺寸级; >100年）都在8公里范围内，每个像素。同时，较长的生长季节，增加生长度日积累，干旱最好的解释时，爆发。此外，我们没有发现证据表明甲虫种群表现出自我驱动的种群增长。最后，我们发现，在过去的20年里，甲虫爆发的程度有所增加，景观敏感性的增加主要发生在较高的纬度 * 海拔，最好的解释是平均生长季节和度日积累的增加。换句话说，异常温暖的气温促进了西部香脂树皮甲虫向北和向上的扩张。总的来说，这些结果作为第一个量化的时空动态的这种未充分研究的昆虫，并支持以前的建模工作，以调查西部香脂树皮甲虫爆发的多尺度驱动程序。我们建议，未来的工作应确定特定的过冷却点，温度和发展速度之间的关系，以及如何相对较高的站内变异的年龄和大小类的亚高山冷杉影响入侵动态的这一未充分研究的树皮甲虫。
Warming temperatures and drought are leading to unprecedented irruptions of forest insects worldwide. Altered climatic regimes have the potential to allow native forest insects to express novel behaviors and expand in latitude and elevation beyond their hypothesized thermal tolerances. Yet, disentangling the drivers of novel behaviors and range expansions is difficult due to cross-scalar interactions that dictate forest insect population dynamics. We investigated the irruptive dynamics of western balsam bark beetle (Dryocoetes confususSwaine), which undergoes intermittent, long-lasting, but low-severity outbreaks in subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpaHook) forests. We compiled data from 1998 to 2019 across British Columbia, Canada, at 1 and 16 km2resolutions to describe the spatiotemporal structure of beetle outbreaks, predict the landscape susceptibility to outbreaks, explain when outbreaks occur based on bioclimatic drivers, explore whether beetle populations exhibit self-driving growth, and determine whether the extent of outbreaks has increased. Overall, we found that outbreaks occur in discrete clusters and are synchronous at distances of 10–25 km. Further, we found that landscape susceptibility to beetle outbreaks was best explained by latitude*elevation (i.e.,the product of latitude [m] and elevation [m] Z-standardized) and volume of fir (m3/ha; >17.5 cm size class; >100 yrs.) both within 8 km and each pixel. Meanwhile, a longer growing season, increased growing degree day accumulation, and drought best explained when outbreaks occurred. Further, we did not find evidence to suggest that beetle populations exhibit self-driving population growth. Finally, we found that the extent of beetle outbreaks has increased over the last 20 years and that increases in landscape susceptibility primarily occurred at higher latitude*elevations and were best explained by an increase in the mean growing season and degree day accumulation. In other words, abnormally warm temperatures have facilitated a northward and upward expansion of western balsam bark beetle. Collectively, these results serve as the first quantification of the spatiotemporal dynamics of this understudied insect and support previous modeling efforts to investigate the multi-scale drivers of western balsam bark beetle outbreaks. We propose that future work should identify specific supercooling points, the relationship between temperature and development rate, and how the relatively high within-stand variability in age and size class of subalpine fir affect the irruptive dynamics of this understudied bark beetle.
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Sommerfeld A;Senf C;Buma B;D'Amato AW;Després T;Díaz-Hormazábal I;Fraver S;Frelich LE;Gutiérrez ÁG;Hart SJ;Harvey BJ;He HS;Hlásny T;Holz A;Kitzberger T;Kulakowski D;Lindenmayer D;Mori AS;Müller J;Paritsis J;Perry GLW;Stephens SL;Svoboda M;Turner MG;Veblen TT;Seidl R
通讯作者：
Seidl R
在气候变化下的森林干扰。
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Seidl R;Thom D;Kautz M;Martin-Benito D;Peltoniemi M;Vacchiano G;Wild J;Ascoli D;Petr M;Honkaniemi J;Lexer MJ;Trotsiuk V;Mairota P;Svoboda M;Fabrika M;Nagel TA;Reyer CPO
通讯作者：
Reyer CPO
气候地区的干旱时期：温带亚高山地区与森林死亡相关的因素因规模而异
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Harvey, Brian J.;Andrus, Robert A.;Battaglia, Mike A.;Negrón, José F.;Orrego, Alexandra;Veblen, Thomas T.
通讯作者：
Veblen, Thomas T.