Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.
Development an Inflammation-Related Factor-Based Model for Predicting Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.
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开发基于炎症相关因素的模型来预测急性胰腺炎器官衰竭：一项回顾性队列研究
DOI：
10.1155/2021/4906768
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Li Q
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng Y;Zhu X;Hou C;Shi C;Huang D;Lu Z;Miao Y;Li Q
在以往的临床研究中，一些炎症相关因子（IRFs）已被报道可预测急性胰腺炎（AP）的器官衰竭。然而，这些模型也有一些缺点。本研究的目的是建立一种新的基于IRF的预测模型，可以准确地识别AP器官衰竭的风险。方法：回顾性纳入100例患者的临床信息和IRF数据（10种细胞因子水平，不同免疫细胞百分比，白细胞计数数据），最终选择94例患者进行进一步分析。应用单因素和多因素分析评估AP器官衰竭的潜在危险因素。评估相关模型的ROC曲线下面积（auc）、敏感性和特异性，评价irf的预测能力。基于多元logistic回归模型的回归系数，建立了预测AP脏器功能衰竭的评分系统。结果。在我们的衍生队列中，AP患者的of发生率接近16%（15/94）。单因素分析数据显示，IL6、IL8、IL10、MCP1、CD3+ CD4+ T淋巴细胞、CD19+B淋巴细胞、PCT、APACHE II评分和RANSON评分是AP器官衰竭的潜在预测因子，进一步的多因素分析显示，IL6 （P = 0.038）、IL8 （P = 0.043）和CD19+B淋巴细胞（P = 0.045）是AP器官衰竭的独立预测因子。此外，构建了术前评分系统（0-11分），利用这三个因素预测AP的器官衰竭。新评分系统的AUC为0.86。新评分系统的最佳临界值为6分。结论。我们的预测模型（基于IL6、IL8和CD19+ B淋巴细胞）对于识别器官衰竭高危AP患者具有满意的工作效率。
Several inflammation-related factors (IRFs) have been reported to predict organ failure of acute pancreatitis (AP) in previous clinical studies. However, there are a few shortcomings in these models. The aim of this study was to develop a new prediction model based on IRFs that could accurately identify the risk for organ failure in AP. Methods. 100 patients with their clinical information and IRF data (levels of 10 cytokines, percentages of different immune cells, and data obtained from white blood cell count) were retrospectively enrolled in this study, and 94 patients were finally selected for further analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to evaluate the potential risk factors for the organ failure of AP. The area under the ROC curve (AUCs), sensitivity, and specificity of the relevant model were assessed to evaluate the prediction ability of IRFs. A new scoring system to predict the organ failure of AP was created based on the regression coefficient of a multivariate logistic regression model. Results. The incidence of OF in AP patients was nearly 16% (15/94) in our derivation cohort. Univariate analytic data revealed that IL6, IL8, IL10, MCP1, CD3+ CD4+ T lymphocytes, CD19+ B lymphocytes, PCT, APACHE II score, and RANSON score were potential predictors for AP organ failure, and IL6 (P = 0.038), IL8 (P = 0.043), and CD19+B lymphocytes (P = 0.045) were independent predictors according to further multivariate analysis. In addition, a preoperative scoring system (0-11 points) was constructed to predict the organ failure of AP using these three factors. The AUC of the new score system was 0.86. The optimal cut-off value of the new scoring system was 6 points. Conclusions. Our prediction model (based on IL6, IL8, and CD19+ B Lymphocyte) has satisfactory working efficiency to identify AP patients with high risk of organ failure.
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影响因子：
37.8
作者：
Wilson, PWF;D'Agostino, RB;Kannel, WB
通讯作者：
Kannel, WB
DOI：
10.1016/0923-2494(92)80015-d
发表时间：
1992-09-01
期刊：
RESEARCH IN IMMUNOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
FUJIHASHI, K;KONO, Y;KIYONO, H
通讯作者：
KIYONO, H
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Jain, Saransh;Midha, Shallu;Garg, Pramod Kumar
通讯作者：
Garg, Pramod Kumar
影响因子：
24.5
作者：
van Dijk, Sven M.;Hallensleben, Nora D. L.;Besselink, Marc G.
通讯作者：
Besselink, Marc G.
黄蜂毒液对类风湿关节炎实验模型具有潜在的治疗作用
DOI：
10.1155/2020/6394625
发表时间：
2020-04-06
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gao, Yuan;Yu, Wan-Xin;Yang, Zhi-Bin
通讯作者：
Yang, Zhi-Bin