Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential.
Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0089783
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Rocklöv J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu-Helmersson J;Stenlund H;Wilder-Smith A;Rocklöv J
登革热是一种蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，主要发生在热带和亚热带地区，但很有可能传播到新的地区。登革热感染对气候敏感，因此更好地了解气候变化因素如何影响地理传播和未来登革热流行的可能性非常重要。媒介能力（VC）描述了媒介传播登革热的倾向，考虑到人类，病毒和媒介的相互作用。VC高度依赖于温度，但大多数登革热模型只考虑平均温度值。最近的证据表明，昼夜温差（DTR）在影响主要登革热媒介埃及伊蚊的行为中起着重要作用。本研究基于A.埃及人。我们发现DEP具有很强的温度依赖性;当DTR为0°C时，它在平均温度29.3°C时达到峰值，当DTR为20 °C时，它在20 ° C时达到峰值。平均温度升高至29°C会导致DEP增加，但温度高于29°C会降低DEP。在平均温度接近29°C的热带地区，小的DTR增加DEP，而大的DTR减少DEP。在平均温度远离29°C的冷温带或极热气候中，增加DTR与增加DEP相关。利用200年（1901-2099年）的历史和预测温度和DTR来验证这些发现，我们发现全球温带地区的DEP有增加的趋势。在过去的100年里，DEP略有增加，预计到本世纪末，使用气候变化预测，在温带北方半球地区，DEP将大幅增加。这些发现说明了包括DTR映射DEP时，基于VC的重要性。
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and future dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901–2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
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基于网络的 GIS：媒介传播疾病航空公司输入风险 (VBD-AIR) 工具。
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Huang Z;Das A;Qiu Y;Tatem AJ
通讯作者：
Tatem AJ
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Carrington, Lauren B.;Seifert, Stephanie N.;Scott, Thomas W.
通讯作者：
Scott, Thomas W.
全球气候变化的一般循环模型预测，登革热流行潜力。
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Patz, J A;Martens, W J;Focks, D A;Jetten, T H
通讯作者：
Jetten, T H
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
Hempel, S.;Frieler, K.;Piontek, F.
通讯作者：
Piontek, F.
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.1995.53.489
发表时间：
1995-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
FOCKS, DA;DANIELS, E;KEESLING, JE
通讯作者：
KEESLING, JE