Effects of future climate change on summer maize growth in Shijin Irrigation District

Effects of future climate change on summer maize growth in Shijin Irrigation District
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未来气候变化对石津灌区夏玉米生长的影响

DOI:
10.1007/s00704-019-02956-z
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发表时间:
2019-07
影响因子:
3.4
通讯作者:
Jiang Rengui
Jiang Rengui
中科院分区:
地球科学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Li Fawen;Liu Yang;Yan Wenhui;Zhao Yong;Jiang Rengui

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The paper selected Shijin Irrigation District as the study area. Considering the future climate change, the paper studied the effects of climate change on summer maize growth. The effects of climate change on summer maize yield were quantitatively analyzed by combining the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and AquaCrop model. The results showed that under the RCP4.5 scenario, the future yield of summer maize in Shijin Irrigation District was mainly reduced, but the yield change showed an upward trend. When the direct impact of CO2is not considered, the yield change ranged from − 6.72~− 3.04%, and the deforestation rate of summer maize is 10.795 kg for every 1 °C increase in growth period. The increase of summer maize is 3.35 kg for every 1 mm increase in rainfall. When considering the direct impact of CO2, the yield change ranged from − 4.04~+ 0.11%. It can be seen that CO2can compensate for the production reduction effect caused by rising temperature.
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