Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure.
Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure.
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DOI：
10.1007/s00285-017-1139-0
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Sirl D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ball F;Sirl D
本文研究了一类随机易感者传染病消除模型中的疫苗接种策略，该模型考虑了传染病在一个具有随机社会联系网络的个体群体中的传播，该网络也被划分为家庭。在不同的疫苗行动模型下，我们考虑了以家庭为基础的疫苗接种计划，其中个人选择接种疫苗的方式取决于他们居住的家庭的规模，以及熟人接种疫苗，其目标是社会网络中的高度个体。对于这两种类型的疫苗接种方案，假设人口较多，初始感染者较少，我们推导出一个阈值参数，该参数决定是否会发生大规模疫情，以及大规模疫情的概率和大规模疫情感染的人口比例。爆发。这些计划的性能进行了数值研究，重点是家庭规模分布和社会网络的度分布的影响。我们发现，熟人接种可以显着优于最好的基于家庭的计划，如果社会网络的度分布是重尾的。对于以家庭为基础的计划，当疫苗覆盖率不足以防止重大疫情和疫苗是不完善的，我们发现的情况下，在该计划下，最小化阈值参数的重大疫情的概率和规模大于在该计划，最大化阈值参数。
This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic susceptible infected removed model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social contacts that is also partitioned into households. Under various vaccine action models, we consider both household-based vaccination schemes, in which the way in which individuals are chosen for vaccination depends on the size of the households in which they reside, and acquaintance vaccination, which targets individuals of high degree in the social network. For both types of vaccination scheme, assuming a large population with few initial infectives, we derive a threshold parameter which determines whether or not a large outbreak can occur and also the probability of a large outbreak and the fraction of the population infected by a large outbreak. The performance of these schemes is studied numerically, focusing on the influence of the household size distribution and the degree distribution of the social network. We find that acquaintance vaccination can significantly outperform the best household-based scheme if the degree distribution of the social network is heavy-tailed. For household-based schemes, when the vaccine coverage is insufficient to prevent a major outbreak and the vaccine is imperfect, we find situations in which both the probability and size of a major outbreak under the scheme which minimises the threshold parameter are larger than in the scheme which maximises the threshold parameter.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
影响因子：
2
作者：
Adams, Ben
通讯作者：
Adams, Ben
影响因子：
1.2
作者：
Ball, Frank;Sirl, David
通讯作者：
Sirl, David
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
FELD, SL
通讯作者：
FELD, SL
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Ball, FG;Lyne, OD
通讯作者：
Lyne, OD