Ecological forecasts to inform near-term management of threats to biodiversity.
Ecological forecasts to inform near-term management of threats to biodiversity.
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15272
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Greenville AC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tulloch AIT;Hagger V;Greenville AC
自然过程的快速和相互作用的变化以及对生物多样性的人为威胁正在改变生态系统。行动的历史、当前和未来有效性的不确定性阻碍了关于如何减缓变化以防止生物多样性丧失和物种灭绝的决定。资源管理、农业和卫生方面的研究表明，预测短期或季节性环境条件对管理的影响的预测极大地改善了结果。这样的预测有助于解决有关何时以及如何实施管理的不确定性。我们回顾了有关环境管理的科学文献，以调查是否开发了短期预测来为澳大利亚的生物多样性决策提供信息，澳大利亚是全球最近灭绝速度最高的国家之一。我们发现，与侧重于生物多样性养护的预测相比，侧重于经济目标(例如渔业管理)的预测所预测的时间要短得多，并回答了更广泛的管理问题。然后，我们评估了关于484项行动的有效性的科学文献，以管理澳大利亚的七大陆地威胁，以确定近期预测的机会，为行动保护决策提供信息。根据行动的不同，30%到80%的威胁管理操作在管理之前、期间或之后经历了短期天气对结果的影响。疾病控制、物种转移/重新引入和栖息地恢复行动受到的影响最大，而物种死亡率增加和招募减少等负面影响比积极影响更有可能。干旱或干旱条件以及降雨量是报告最频繁的天气影响，这表明预测降雨量少或多对管理结果的影响的短期预报可能会带来最大的好处。在世界各地，许多地区像澳大利亚一样，正在变得更加温暖和干燥，或者正在经历更多的极端降雨事件。利用近期和季节性生态预测为保护决策提供信息，对于驾驭不确定性和降低全球变化下威胁管理失败的风险至关重要。我们审查了99个生态预测，为澳大利亚的生物多样性管理提供信息，结果显示，陆地生物多样性保护研究侧重于对未来长达100年的长期预测，而资源管理和海洋研究预测的时间较短。然后，我们评估了关于484项行动的有效性的科学文献，以管理澳大利亚的七个主要陆地威胁，发现30%到80%的威胁管理操作在管理之前、期间或之后经历了短期天气影响。利用近期和季节性生态预测为保护决策提供信息，对于驾驭不确定性和降低全球变化下威胁管理失败的风险至关重要。
Ecosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near‐term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near‐term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near‐term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near‐term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change. Our review of 99 ecological forecasts to inform biodiversity management in Australia, revealed that terrestrial biodiversity conservation research focuses on long‐term predictions of up to 100‐years into the future, whereas resource management and marine research predicts on shorter timelines. We then evaluated the scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, and found that between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Chikamoto Y;Timmermann A;Widlansky MJ;Balmaseda MA;Stott L
通讯作者：
Stott L
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Burrows, ND;Algar, D;Liddelow, G
通讯作者：
Liddelow, G
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1704949114
发表时间：
2017-07-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Ceballos, Gerardo;Ehrlich, Paul R.;Dirzo, Rodolfo
通讯作者：
Dirzo, Rodolfo
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Geary, William L.;Nimmo, Dale G.;Tulloch, Ayesha I. T.
通讯作者：
Tulloch, Ayesha I. T.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Engelbrecht, Bettina M. J.;Comita, Liza S.;Hubbell, Stephen P.
通讯作者：
Hubbell, Stephen P.