Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades.
Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3
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发表时间：
2022-09-27
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Dellicour, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klitting, Raphaelle;Kafetzopoulou, Liana E.;Thiery, Wim;Dudas, Gytis;Gryseels, Sophie;Kotamarthi, Anjali;Vrancken, Bram;Gangavarapu, Karthik;Momoh, Mambu;Sandi, John Demby;Goba, Augustine;Alhasan, Foday;Grant, Donald S.;Okogbenin, Sylvanus;Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim;Garry, Robert F.;Smither, Allison R.;Zeller, Mark;Pauthner, Matthias G.;McGraw, Michelle;Hughes, Laura D.;Duraffour, Sophie;Guenther, Stephan;Suchard, Marc A.;Lemey, Philippe;Andersen, Kristian G.;Dellicour, Simon
拉沙热是一种严重的病毒性出血热，由一种人畜共患病毒引起，这种病毒会反复从啮齿动物的水库溢出到人类身上。目前尚不清楚气候和土地利用变化如何影响该病毒流行地区，目前仅限于西非部分地区。通过使用生态位模型探索与病毒发生相关的环境数据，我们展示了温度、降水和牧场的存在如何决定病毒传播的生态适宜性。根据对气候、土地利用和人口变化的预测，我们发现中非和东非地区在未来几十年可能会变得适合拉萨病毒传播，并估计到2070年，生活在适合拉萨病毒传播的生态条件下的总人口可能会大幅增加。通过使用空间显式系统地理学分析地理标记的病毒基因组并模拟病毒扩散，我们发现，如果拉萨病毒被引入一个新的合适区域，它的传播在最初的几十年可能仍然是有限的。目前尚不清楚气候和土地利用的变化如何影响拉萨病毒的流行区域，拉萨病毒是一种导致拉沙热的人畜共患病病原体。在这里，作者们指出，到2070年，非洲的新地区很可能在生态上变得适合拉萨病毒，从而大幅增加生活在有利于病毒传播的条件下的人口。
Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. It is currently unknown how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen responsible for Lassa fever. Here, the authors show that by 2070, new regions in Africa will likely become ecologically suitable for Lassa virus, drastically increasing the population living in conditions favourable for virus circulation.
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影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Bathiany S;Dakos V;Scheffer M;Lenton TM
通讯作者：
Lenton TM
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Simo Tchetgna H;Descorps-Declère S;Selekon B;Kwasiborski A;Vandenbogaert M;Manuguerra JC;Gessain A;Caro V;Nakouné E;Berthet N
通讯作者：
Berthet N
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Downs, Isaac L.;Shaia, Carl, I;Honko, Anna
通讯作者：
Honko, Anna
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Coumou, Dim;Robinson, Alexander;Rahmstorf, Stefan
通讯作者：
Rahmstorf, Stefan
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Colangelo, Paolo;Verheyen, Erik;Lecompte, Emilie
通讯作者：
Lecompte, Emilie