Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States.
Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States.
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DOI：
10.3390/v14010157
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发表时间：
2022-01-15
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hlavacek WS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mallela A;Neumann J;Miller EF;Chen Y;Posner RG;Lin YT;Hlavacek WS
尽管美国许多人通过接种疫苗或感染SARS-CoV-2获得了对COVID-19的免疫力，但只要疾病传播继续，COVID-19将对无免疫力的人构成持续威胁。我们可以通过计算特定人群的基本繁殖数，即在没有任何干预措施的情况下，受感染者产生的预期继发病例数，来估计持续的疾病传播何时会在人群中结束。的值与群体免疫阈值（HIT）有关，HIT由。当人群的免疫比例超过这个阈值时，持续的疾病传播就变得不太可能（除非发生突变，使SARS-CoV-2逃脱免疫）。在这里，我们报告使用贝叶斯推理获得的国家级估计。最大的后验估计从新泽西州的7.1到怀俄明州的2.3不等，这表明各州之间的疾病传播差异很大，在一些州实现群体免疫将比其他州更难。在使用2020年1月21日至2020年6月21日区域每日COVID-19确诊病例报告对每个模型进行参数化后，通过下一代矩阵方法从隔间模型中获得估计数。我们的估计描述了祖先菌株的传染性，但如果能够确定菌株的相对传染性，它们可以用于确定当前占主导地位的独特流行菌株的hit，例如SARS-CoV-2变体Delta（谱系B.1.617.2）。根据三角洲调整的疫苗接种数据、疫苗接种数据和血清患病率调查数据，我们发现截至2021年9月20日，没有一个州实现了群体免疫。
Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number , the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by . When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21 January 2020 to 21 June 2020. Our estimates characterize the infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we found that no state had achieved herd immunity as of 20 September 2021.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Delamater, Paul L.;Street, Erica J.;Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
通讯作者：
Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Ives AR;Bozzuto C
通讯作者：
Bozzuto C
影响因子：
--
作者：
D'Arienzo, Marco;Coniglio, Angela
通讯作者：
Coniglio, Angela
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm7008e3
发表时间：
2021-02-26
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gee J;Marquez P;Su J;Calvert GM;Liu R;Myers T;Nair N;Martin S;Clark T;Markowitz L;Lindsey N;Zhang B;Licata C;Jazwa A;Sotir M;Shimabukuro T
通讯作者：
Shimabukuro T
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Bendavid E;Mulaney B;Sood N;Shah S;Bromley-Dulfano R;Lai C;Weissberg Z;Saavedra-Walker R;Tedrow J;Bogan A;Kupiec T;Eichner D;Gupta R;Ioannidis JPA;Bhattacharya J
通讯作者：
Bhattacharya J