Analysis of COVID-19 using a modified SLIR model with nonlinear incidence.
Analysis of COVID-19 using a modified SLIR model with nonlinear incidence.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104478
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发表时间：
2021-08
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Rahman A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kuddus MA;Rahman A
传染病每年造成数百万人死亡，是世界上主要的公共卫生问题。本文提出了一个改进的非线性发病率疾病传播的易感-潜伏-消除（SLIR）房室模型。我们得到了基本再生数的一个阈值，并证明了当存在时，只存在无病平衡点，当存在时，只存在地方病平衡点。利用Lyapunov-LaSalle不变性原理证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点都是全局渐近稳定的。该研究亦提供模型校准，以按月计算冠状病毒（COVID-19）数据（即Worldometer于二零二零年三月至二零二一年五月报告的病例）估计参数，并提供中国直至二零二一年十二月的预测。采用偏秩相关系数（PRCC）方法研究了模型参数的变化对模型结果的影响。我们观察到，最重要的参数是传播率，其对COVID-19病例的影响最大。我们还讨论了COVID-19病例的流行病学和几项控制政策，并提出了在中国控制这种疾病的建议。
Infectious diseases kill millions of people each year, and they are the major public health problem in the world. This paper presents a modified Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Removed (SLIR) compartmental model of disease transmission with nonlinear incidence. We have obtained a threshold value of basic reproduction number and shown that only a disease-free equilibrium exists when and endemic equilibrium when . With the help of the Lyapunov-LaSalle Invariance Principle, we have shown that disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are both globally asymptotically stable. The study has also provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with month wise coronavirus (COVID-19) data, i.e. reported cases by worldometer from March 2020 to May 2021 and provides prediction until December 2021 in China. The Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) method was used to investigate how the model parameters’ variation impact the model outcomes. We observed that the most important parameter is transmission rate which had the most significant impact on COVID-19 cases. We also discuss the epidemiology of COVID-19 cases and several control policies and make recommendations for controlling this disease in China.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph18094491
发表时间：
2021-04-23
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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