Low-carbon technology diffusion in the decarbonization of the power sector: Policy implications
Low-carbon technology diffusion in the decarbonization of the power sector: Policy implications
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电力行业脱碳中的低碳技术扩散：政策影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.02.001
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发表时间：
2018-05
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Guozhu Mao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xi Liu;Huibin Du;Marilyn A. Brown;Jian Zuo;Ning Zhang;Qian Rong;Guozhu Mao
中国电力行业面临着一个重大挑战，即在满足快速增长的电力需求的同时减少二氧化碳排放。为了应对这一挑战，提出了一个分析框架，将技术学习曲线的技术优化模型。应用该框架对天津市电力行业2005-2050年的技术发展轨迹、资源利用和经济影响进行了评价。利用多情景分析，这项研究表明，CO2排放量可以显着减少，如果相关的减缓政策的介绍。采用的主要技术有超超临界燃烧、整体煤气化联合循环、风电、水电、生物质能发电、太阳能光伏发电和太阳能热电等。尽管存在不确定性，但核能和二氧化碳捕获和储存技术在未来可能具有成本竞争力。CO2排放上限政策的优点是在目标年实现明确的目标，而可再生能源政策有助于更多的累积CO2减排和煤炭节约。320 CNY/吨CO2的碳税将有助于可再生能源的早期发展和短期内更多的CO2减排。进行了敏感性分析，以检查对电力系统的学习率，技术成本降低和能源燃料价格轨迹的影响。
The Chinese power sector faces a significant challenge in attempting to mitigate its CO2 emissions while meeting its fast-growing demand for electricity. To address this challenge, an analytical framework is proposed that incorporates technological learning curves in a technology optimization model. The framework is employed to evaluate the technology trajectories, resource utilization and economic impacts in the power sector of Tianjin in 2005–2050. Using multi-scenario analysis, this study reveals that CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced if relevant mitigation policies are introduced. The main technologies adopted are ultra-super-critical combustion, integrated gasification combined cycle, wind power, hydropower, biomass power, solar photovoltaic power and solar thermal power. Despite uncertainties, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage technology could be cost competitive in the future. The CO2 emissions cap policy has the advantage of realizing an explicit goal in the target year, while the renewable energy policy contributes to more cumulative CO2 emissions reduction and coal savings. A carbon tax of 320 CNY/ton CO2 would contribute to early renewable energy development and more CO2 reduction in the short run. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the impacts on the power system of learning rates, technology cost reductions and energy fuel price trajectories.
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影响因子：
12
作者：
S. Simoes;P. Fortes;J. Seixas;G. Huppes
通讯作者：
S. Simoes;P. Fortes;J. Seixas;G. Huppes
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1978492
发表时间：
2011-07
期刊：
Politics & Energy eJournal
影响因子：
--
作者：
A. Paul;K. Palmer;M. Woerman
通讯作者：
A. Paul;K. Palmer;M. Woerman
DOI：
10.1016/j.compchemeng.2012.10.005
发表时间：
2013-03
期刊：
Comput. Chem. Eng.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Dongjie Zhang;Pei Liu;Linwei Ma;Zheng Li
通讯作者：
Dongjie Zhang;Pei Liu;Linwei Ma;Zheng Li
影响因子：
9
作者：
Betül Özer;E. Görgün;S. Incecik
通讯作者：
Betül Özer;E. Görgün;S. Incecik
影响因子：
9
作者：
A. Pereira;R. Pereira;Pedro G. Rodrigues
通讯作者：
A. Pereira;R. Pereira;Pedro G. Rodrigues