Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood.
Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood.
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.abq0995
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发表时间：
2022-08-12
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
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中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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尽管最近严重干旱普遍存在，但加州面临着严重洪水的风险，这一风险被广泛低估了。在这里，我们利用气候模式数据和高分辨率天气模型的组合，研究了能够引发“特大洪水”条件的“可能最坏情况”极端风暴序列的物理特征。利用社区地球系统模型大集合的数据，我们发现气候变化已经使能够产生灾难性洪水的事件的可能性增加了一倍，但由于持续变暖，未来更大的增加可能是由于持续变暖。我们进一步发现，在未来极端风暴情景下，内华达山脉的径流量比历史值高出200 - 400%，因为降水率增加，雪率减少。这些发现对洪水和应急管理有直接影响，对减轻灾害和适应气候变化活动也有更广泛的影响。气候变化增加了极端风暴序列在加州引发严重洪水的可能性。
Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of “plausible worst case scenario” extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to “megaflood” conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling. Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of an extreme storm sequence capable of generating severe flooding in California.
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