Expectations of non-COVID-19 deaths during the pre-vaccine pandemic: a process-control approach.
Expectations of non-COVID-19 deaths during the pre-vaccine pandemic: a process-control approach.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-022-14829-8
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发表时间：
2023-01-23
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
关于将“保持社交距离”作为应对大流行措施的争论包括，有人声称，破坏依赖人际接触的临床和公共卫生规划增加了非covid -19死亡人数。这种说法值得检验，因为新的病原体会不断出现。然而，如果疫苗大流行前的临床和公共卫生规划仍然像大流行前那样有效，那么缺乏一种估计非covid -19死亡人数的惯例，测试似乎感到沮丧。为了加速这种惯例的出现，我们描述并展示了流行病学和过程控制工程交叉研究和方法提出的“新信号，先验反应期望”。利用德国的数据，我们通过应用Box-Jenkins方法对2014年12月29日至2020年3月8日期间271例每周全因死亡人数进行统计，估计了大流行前的公共卫生效果。我们通过将该模型应用于2020年3月9日至2020年12月26日的每周非covid -19死亡人数，设计了新的信号、事前反应预期。与COVID-19大流行同时发生的非COVID-19死亡人数并未超过对大流行前全因死亡应对措施效果的预期。新信号和应对前估计有助于评估公共卫生规划在疫苗接种前大流行期间减少非covid -19死亡的效果。在线版本包含补充材料，下载地址：10.1186/s12889-022-14829-8。
Debate over “social distancing” as a response to the pandemic includes the claim that disrupting clinical and public health programming dependent on human-to-human contact increased non-COVID-19 deaths. This claim warrants testing because novel pathogens will continue to emerge. Tests, however, appear frustrated by lack of a convention for estimating non-COVID-19 deaths that would have occurred had clinical and public health programming during the pre-vaccine pandemic remained as efficacious as in the pre-pandemic era. Intending to hasten the emergence of such a convention, we describe and demonstrate “new-signal, prior-response expectations” suggested by research and methods at the intersection of epidemiology and process control engineering. Using German data, we estimate pre-pandemic public health efficacy by applying Box-Jenkins methods to 271 weekly counts of all-cause deaths from December 29 2014 through March 8 2020. We devise new-signal, prior-response expectations by applying the model to weekly non-COVID-19 deaths from March 9 2020 through December 26 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic did not coincide with more non-COVID-19 deaths than expected from the efficacy of responses to pre-pandemic all-cause deaths. New-signal, prior-response estimates can contribute to evaluating the efficacy of public health programming in reducing non-COVID-19 deaths during the pre-vaccine pandemic. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14829-8.
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影响因子：
2.7
作者：
LJUNG, GM;BOX, GEP
通讯作者：
BOX, GEP
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
van den Driessche P
通讯作者：
van den Driessche P
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Alabdulrazzaq H;Alenezi MN;Rawajfih Y;Alghannam BA;Al-Hassan AA;Al-Anzi FS
通讯作者：
Al-Anzi FS
影响因子：
--
作者：
Benneyan, JC;Lloyd, RC;Plsek, PE
通讯作者：
Plsek, PE
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinf.2020.09.012
发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
The Journal of infection
影响因子：
--
作者：
Stang A;Standl F;Kowall B;Brune B;Böttcher J;Brinkmann M;Dittmer U;Jöckel KH
通讯作者：
Jöckel KH