Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.
Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.
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DOI：
10.2196/37377
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发表时间：
2022-06-03
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Post, Lori A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lundberg, Alexander L.;Lorenzo-Redondo, Ramon;Hultquist, Judd F.;Hawkins, Claudia A.;Ozer, Egon A.;Welch, Sarah B.;Prasad, P. V. Vara;Achenbach, Chad J.;White, Janine, I;Oehmke, James F.;Murphy, Robert L.;Havey, Robert J.;Post, Lori A.
关键词：
SARS-CoV-2的Omicron变体比先前的关注变体（VOCs）更具传染性。它造成了大流行病中最大规模的爆发，死亡率和住院率都有所增加。关于欧米克隆病毒传播的早期数据是在病例数相对较低的国家获得的，因此尚不清楚欧米克隆病毒的到来将如何影响已经经历了高水平社区传播的国家的大流行轨迹。本研究的目的是量化和解释Omicron对大流行轨迹的影响，以及在发生Omicron时发生或未发生三角洲疫情的国家之间的影响有何不同。我们使用SARS-CoV-2监测和基因序列数据将国家分为两组：当首次在该国进行欧米克隆测序时，处于三角洲疫情（定义为每10万人中至少有10例每日新传播）的国家和未发生三角洲疫情的国家。我们使用趋势分析、生存曲线和动态面板回归模型来比较两组在2021年11月1日至2022年2月11日期间的疫情。我们根据SARS-CoV-2感染的峰值率和达到峰值率所需的时间对疫情进行了总结。在欧米克隆到达时，已经爆发了以三角洲病毒血统为主的疫情的国家需要更长的时间才能达到峰值，与尚未爆发欧米克隆病毒的国家相比，欧米克隆病毒爆发的平均峰值增加了两倍以上（2.04）。这些结果表明，首次发现欧米克隆病毒时三角洲病毒的高度社区传播并不能起到保护作用，而是阻止了在这些国家发生更大的疫情。由于气候、政策和个人行为等重叠因素，暴发状态可能反映一般易感人群。在缺乏强有力的缓解措施的情况下，一种新的、更具传染性的变种进入这些国家，因此更有可能导致更大规模的疫情。另外，拥有加强监测规划和激励措施的国家可能更有可能既处于疫情状态，又在疫情期间发现更多病例，从而产生一种虚假的关系。无论哪种方式，这些数据都反对群体免疫减轻未来发生重大抗原变化的变种的爆发。
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta. The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred. We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate. Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak. These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.
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地球是平的（p > 0.05）：重要性阈值和不可复制研究的危机。
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Amrhein V;Korner-Nievergelt F;Roth T
通讯作者：
Roth T
影响因子：
13.2
作者：
Ai J;Zhang H;Zhang Y;Lin K;Zhang Y;Wu J;Wan Y;Huang Y;Song J;Fu Z;Wang H;Guo J;Jiang N;Fan M;Zhou Y;Zhao Y;Zhang Q;Liu Q;Lv J;Li P;Qiu C;Zhang W
通讯作者：
Zhang W
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2119451
发表时间：
2022-04-21
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Andrews N;Stowe J;Kirsebom F;Toffa S;Rickeard T;Gallagher E;Gower C;Kall M;Groves N;O'Connell AM;Simons D;Blomquist PB;Zaidi A;Nash S;Iwani Binti Abdul Aziz N;Thelwall S;Dabrera G;Myers R;Amirthalingam G;Gharbia S;Barrett JC;Elson R;Ladhani SN;Ferguson N;Zambon M;Campbell CNJ;Brown K;Hopkins S;Chand M;Ramsay M;Lopez Bernal J
通讯作者：
Lopez Bernal J
影响因子：
64.5
作者：
Hoffmann M;Krüger N;Schulz S;Cossmann A;Rocha C;Kempf A;Nehlmeier I;Graichen L;Moldenhauer AS;Winkler MS;Lier M;Dopfer-Jablonka A;Jäck HM;Behrens GMN;Pöhlmann S
通讯作者：
Pöhlmann S
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Abu-Raddad LJ;Chemaitelly H;Ayoub HH;Coyle P;Malek JA;Ahmed AA;Mohamoud YA;Younuskunju S;Tang P;Al Kanaani Z;Al Kuwari E;Butt AA;Jeremijenko A;Kaleeckal AH;Latif AN;Shaik RM;Abdul Rahim HF;Nasrallah GK;Yassine HM;Al Kuwari MG;Al Romaihi HE;Al-Thani MH;Al Khal A;Bertollini R
通讯作者：
Bertollini R