Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050.
Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Foley JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ray DK;Mueller ND;West PC;Foley JA
一些研究表明，到2050年，全球作物产量需要翻一番，以满足人口增长、饮食变化和生物燃料消费增加的预期需求。提高作物产量以满足这些不断增长的需求，而不是清理更多的土地用于农业，已被强调为实现这一目标的首选解决方案。然而，我们首先需要了解全球农作物产量的变化，以及我们是否有望在2050年前实现产量翻番。我们利用从全球13，500个政治单位收集的250万美元农业统计数据，追踪了四种主要的全球作物--玉米、水稻、小麦和大豆--目前它们生产的热量占全球农业热量的近三分之二。我们发现，这四大作物的产量分别以每年1.6%、1.0%、0.9%和1.3%的非复合增长率增长，这低于到2050年全球产量翻一番所需的每年2.4%的增长率。按照这样的速度，这些作物的全球产量将分别增长1.67%、1.42%、1.38%和1.55%，这远远低于满足2050年预期需求所需的水平。我们提供了详细的地图，以确定在哪些方面必须提高费率，以提高作物产量并满足不断增长的需求。
Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hulme MF;Vickery JA;Green RE;Phalan B;Chamberlain DE;Pomeroy DE;Nalwanga D;Mushabe D;Katebaka R;Bolwig S;Atkinson PW
通讯作者：
Atkinson PW
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Dawe, D;Dobermann, A;Zhen, QX
通讯作者：
Zhen, QX
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Fischer, R. A. (Tony);Edmeades, Gregory O.
通讯作者：
Edmeades, Gregory O.
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Eickhout, B.;Bouwman, A. F.;van Zeijts, H.
通讯作者：
van Zeijts, H.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.96.11.5929
发表时间：
1999-05-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Dyson, T
通讯作者：
Dyson, T