Thresholds for ecological responses to global change do not emerge from empirical data.
Thresholds for ecological responses to global change do not emerge from empirical data.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41559-020-1256-9
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
16.8
通讯作者：
Freund JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hillebrand H;Donohue I;Harpole WS;Hodapp D;Kucera M;Lewandowska AM;Merder J;Montoya JM;Freund JA
为了了解生态系统对人为全球变化的响应，一个流行的框架是定义压力阈值水平，高于该阈值水平，响应幅度及其方差会不成比例地增加。然而，我们缺乏系统的定量证据，以经验数据是否允许定义这样的阈值。在这里，我们总结了36项荟萃分析，衡量了4,600多项全球变化对自然群落的影响。我们发现，无论是在荟萃分析中还是在荟萃分析中，阈值越限都很少被检测到。相反，生态响应的特点主要是逐步增加的幅度和方差时，压力增加。对模拟数据的敏感性分析显示，响应中的微小方差足以排除从数据中检测阈值，即使它们存在。模拟加强了我们的论点，即全球变化生物学需要放弃一般的期望，系统属性允许定义阈值作为一种方式来管理全球变化下的自然。相反，即使在微弱的压力下，高度可变的反应表明，“安全操作空间”不太可能量化。
To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic global change, a prevailing framework is the definition of threshold levels of pressure, above which response magnitudes and their variances increase disproportionately. However, we lack systematic quantitative evidence as to whether empirical data allow definition of such thresholds. Here, we summarize 36 meta-analyses measuring more than 4,600 global change impacts on natural communities. We find that threshold transgressions were rarely detectable, either within or across meta-analyses. Instead, ecological responses were characterized mostly by progressively increasing magnitude and variance when pressure increased. Sensitivity analyses with modelled data revealed that minor variances in the response are sufficient to preclude the detection of thresholds from data, even if they are present. The simulations reinforced our contention that global change biology needs to abandon the general expectation that system properties allow defining thresholds as a way to manage nature under global change. Rather, highly variable responses, even under weak pressures, suggest that ‘safe-operating spaces’ are unlikely to be quantifiable.
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