Subcritical Transmission in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in Korea.
Subcritical Transmission in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in Korea.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph18031265
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发表时间：
2021-01-31
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lee H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Won YS;Kim JH;Ahn CY;Lee H
虽然韩国自二零二零年一月起持续爆发二零一九年冠状病毒病（COVID-19），但在爆发初期传播有限。在本研究中，我们旨在提供导致此次小规模疫情的COVID-19传播的统计特征。我们整理了2020年1月20日至2月10日报告的首批28例确诊病例的个人数据。我们估计了关键的流行病学参数，如报告延迟（即，从症状发作到确认的时间）、潜伏期和连续间隔，通过基于最大似然估计将概率分布拟合到数据。我们还估计了基本繁殖数（使用更新方程，该方程允许输入病例和本地传播病例之间的传播率不同。有16例输入病例和12例本地传播病例，输入病例的二次传播高于本地传播病例（9例对3例）。估计输入和本地传播病例的平均报告延迟分别为6.76天（95% CI：4.53，9.28）和2.57天（95% CI：1.57，4.23）。平均潜伏期估计为5.53天（95% CI：3.98，8.09），短于平均连续间隔6.45天（95% CI：4.32，9.65）。估计为0.40（95%CI：0.16，0.99），包括本地和输入病例。本地传播病例的继发病例较少，报告延迟时间较短，表明对输入病例的接触者追踪有效地减少了进一步传播，这有助于将传播总数保持在1例以下。
While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has been ongoing in Korea since January 2020, there were limited transmissions during the early stages of the outbreak. In the present study, we aimed to provide a statistical characterization of COVID-19 transmissions that led to this small outbreak. We collated the individual data of the first 28 confirmed cases reported from 20 January to 10 February 2020. We estimated key epidemiological parameters such as reporting delay (i.e., time from symptom onset to confirmation), incubation period, and serial interval by fitting probability distributions to the data based on the maximum likelihood estimation. We also estimated the basic reproduction number ( using the renewal equation, which allows for the transmissibility to differ between imported and locally transmitted cases. There were 16 imported and 12 locally transmitted cases, and secondary transmissions per case were higher for the imported cases than the locally transmitted cases (nine vs. three cases). The mean reporting delays were estimated to be 6.76 days (95% CI: 4.53, 9.28) and 2.57 days (95% CI: 1.57, 4.23) for imported and locally transmitted cases, respectively. The mean incubation period was estimated to be 5.53 days (95% CI: 3.98, 8.09) and was shorter than the mean serial interval of 6.45 days (95% CI: 4.32, 9.65). The was estimated to be 0.40 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.99), accounting for the local and imported cases. The fewer secondary cases and shorter reporting delays for the locally transmitted cases suggest that contact tracing of imported cases was effective at reducing further transmissions, which helped to keep below one and the overall transmissions small.
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