Forecasting riverine erosion hazards to electricity transmission towers under increasing flow magnitudes
Forecasting riverine erosion hazards to electricity transmission towers under increasing flow magnitudes
复制标题
预测流量增加情况下对输电塔的河流侵蚀危害
DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2022.100439
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Feeney C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feeney C
洪水和侵蚀将对城市住区和关键基础设施，如未来的道路和电网构成越来越大的挑战。改进对气候变化对关键基础设施影响的预测对于协助未来规划至关重要。本文采用水文沉积模型预测河流侵蚀威胁输电基础设施在城市化的河流流域下，多个增加流量的大小的情况。我们使用耦合的水动力学和景观演变模型，CAESAR-Lisflood，模拟河道变化沿着达到默西河，英国从现在到2050年。一系列的合成流量的情况下，最近的水文记录的基础上，在模型中使用的范围从“没有变化”的流量高达50%以上的幅度。结果显示：（1）河岸侵蚀将对位于河流沿着的几座输电塔构成重大威胁，需要进行干预，以避免移动河道造成的不稳定;（2）河漫滩侵蚀和沉积≥ 0.5 m深的总面积与预计流量的增加呈正相关。然而，通过运行模型的“低”和“高”侵蚀版本，模拟显示这些威胁对模型侵蚀部分的校准最为敏感，说明了预测长期河道变化的挑战和不确定性;以及（3）长期模拟如何有助于输电塔的适应规划。有必要进一步建立河段和流域规模的模型，以更准确地确定大洪水的时间，这会产生最严重的侵蚀和沉积事件，并评估输电塔保护措施的效力。
Flooding and erosion will pose increasing challenges to urban settlements and critical infrastructure, such as roads and power grids in the future. Improved projections on the impact of climate change to critical infrastructure are essential to assist future planning. This paper uses hydro-sedimentary modelling to predict river erosion threats to electricity transmission infrastructure in an urbanised river valley under multiple increasing flow magnitude scenarios. We use a coupled hydrodynamic and landscape evolution model, CAESAR-Lisflood, to simulate river channel changes along a reach of the River Mersey, UK from the present day to 2050. A range of synthetic flow scenarios, based on recent hydrological records, was used in the model ranging from ‘no change’ up to a flow with 50% higher magnitude. The results revealed: (1) riverbank erosion will pose significant threats to several transmission towers located along the river, requiring intervention to avoid destabilisation by the moving channel; (2) the total area of floodplain erosion and deposition ≥ 0.5 m deep was positively related to increasing projected flow magnitudes. However, through running a ‘low’ and ‘high’ erosion version of the model, the simulations revealed these threats were most sensitive to the calibration of the erosion component of the model, illustrating the challenges and uncertainty in forecasting long-term river channel change; and (3) how long-term simulations can assist in adaptation planning for electricity transmission towers. Further reach- and catchment-scale modelling will be necessary to determine the timings of large floods more accurately, which produce the most significant erosion and deposition events, and to evaluate the efficacy of protections to transmission towers.
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