Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
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英国气候预测 (UKCP18) 中与热应激相关的预计风险
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac541a
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Kennedy-Asser A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kennedy-Asser A
英国夏季极端高温对健康（以及其他部门）构成风险，而导致脆弱性的局部社会经济因素加剧了这种风险。在这里，英国气候预测的区域气候模型模拟用于评估未来在全球平均地表温度变暖水平比工业化前高+ 1.5 C、+ 2.0 C和+ 3.0 C的情况下，英国各地极端高温的不同要素将如何变化。包括包含每日最高和最低温度、温度变化和蒸气压的热应激指标。这些显示了最近过去的质量相似的空间模式，其中在英国东南部地区发现了最明显的热危害。英国各地预计的热危害变化并不均匀，南部地区（例如大伦敦、东南部）的最高气温增加幅度更大，而北部地区（例如苏格兰和北爱尔兰）的湿度增加幅度更大。随着气温升高 3.0 摄氏度，英国西南部的综合热危害相对变化最大，但从绝对值来看，东南部地区仍将遭受最大的危害。与社会经济因素相结合，伦敦部分地区、中部地区和英格兰东部以及南部和东部沿海地区出现了高热应激风险热点。不同高温风险因素的权重是主观的，为此，我们开发并提供了一款交互式应用程序，允许用户评估预计的英国高温风险的敏感性和不确定性。
Summer heat extremes in the UK pose a risk to health (amongst other sectors) and this is exacerbated by localised socio-economic factors that contribute to vulnerability. Here, regional climate model simulations from the UK Climate Projections are used to assess how different elements of extreme heat will vary across the UK in the future under global mean surface temperature warming levels of+ 1.5 C,+ 2.0 C and+ 3.0 C above pre-industrial. Heat stress metrics incorporating daily maximum and minimum temperature, temperature variability and vapour pressure are included. These show qualitatively similar spatial patterns for the recent past, with the most pronounced heat hazards found in south-eastern regions of the UK. Projected heat hazard changes across the UK are not homogeneous, with southern regions (eg Greater London, South East) showing greater increases in maximum temperatures and northern regions (eg Scotland and Northern Ireland) showing greater increases in humidity. With+ 3.0 C warming, the relative change in combined heat hazards is found to be greatest in the south-western UK, however, in absolute terms, south-eastern regions will still experience the greatest hazards. When combined with socio-economic factors, hotspots of high heat stress risk emerge in parts of London, the Midlands and eastern England along with southern and eastern coastal regions. Weighting of different heat risk factors is subjective and to this end we have developed and made available an interactive app which allows users to assess sensitivities and uncertainties in the projected UK heat risk.
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影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Scovronick N;Sera F;Royé D;Schneider R;Tobias A;Astrom C;Guo Y;Honda Y;Hondula DM;Abrutzky R;Tong S;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PHN;Lavigne E;Correa PM;Ortega NV;Kan H;Osorio S;Kyselý J;Urban A;Orru H;Indermitte E;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti N;Pascal M;Schneider A;Katsouyanni K;Samoli E;Mayvaneh F;Entezari A;Goodman P;Zeka A;Michelozzi P;de'Donato F;Hashizume M;Alahmad B;Diaz MH;De La Cruz Valencia C;Overcenco A;Houthuijs D;Ameling C;Rao S;Ruscio FD;Carrasco-Escobar G;Seposo X;Silva S;Madureira J;Holobaca IH;Fratianni S;Acquaotta F;Kim H;Lee W;Iniguez C;Forsberg B;Ragettli MS;Guo YLL;Chen BY;Li S;Armstrong B;Aleman A;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Dang TN;Dung DV;Gillett N;Haines A;Mengel M;Huber V;Gasparrini A
通讯作者：
Gasparrini A
在英国，气候变化，健康和社会不平等的健康影响。
DOI：
10.1186/s12940-017-0328-z
发表时间：
2017-12-05
期刊：
Environmental health : a global access science source
影响因子：
--
作者：
Paavola J
通讯作者：
Paavola J
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser;Oliver Andrews;D. Mitchell;R. Warren
通讯作者：
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser;Oliver Andrews;D. Mitchell;R. Warren
英国城市的气候变化：英国气候预测中城市对极端气温的影响
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
W. J. Keat;E. Kendon;S. Bohnenstengel
通讯作者：
S. Bohnenstengel
影响因子：
6
作者：
Brimicombe, Chloe;Porter, James J.;Cloke, Hannah L.
通讯作者：
Cloke, Hannah L.