The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China
The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China
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中国能源碳排放分解及其与经济增长脱钩
DOI：
10.1016/j.rser.2014.09.021
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
15.9
通讯作者：
Da YB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang YJ;Da YB
为了寻找降低我国碳排放强度的有效途径，本文利用LMDI方法分别从能源和产业结构两个角度对1996 - 2010年我国碳排放量和碳排放强度的变化进行了分解。然后引入脱钩指数分析中国碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系。结果表明：一方面，经济增长是近几十年来碳排放增加的主要驱动力，而能源强度的降低和最终能源消费结构的清洁化对碳排放的抑制作用显著;同时，第二产业是三次产业中碳减排的主要来源，具有相对较高的潜力。另一方面，当考虑脱钩关系时，研究期内大部分年份碳排放与经济增长之间存在相对脱钩效应，表明碳排放抑制因素的削减效应小于经济增长的驱动效应，经济增长伴随着碳排放的增加; 1997年、2000年和2001年出现了绝对脱钩效应，即经济增长的同时碳排放量减少，而2003年和2004年没有发现脱钩效应。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
In order to find the efficient ways to reduce carbon emission intensity in China, we utilize the LMDI method to decompose the changes of China's carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity from 1996 to 2010, from the perspectives of energy sources and industrial structure respectively. Then we introduce the decoupling index to analyze the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in China. The results indicate that, on the one hand, economic growth appeared as the main driver of carbon emissions increase in the past decades, while the decrease of energy intensity and the cleaning of final energy consumption structure played significant roles in curbing carbon emissions; meanwhile, the secondary industry proved the principal source of carbon emissions reduction among the three industries and had relatively higher potential. On the other hand, when the decoupling relationship is considered, most years during the study period saw the relative decoupling effect between carbon emissions and economic growth, which indicated that the reduction effect of inhibiting factors of carbon emissions was less than the driving effect of economic growth, and the economy grew with increased carbon emissions; there appeared the absolute decoupling effect in 1997, 2000 and 2001, which implied that the economy grew while carbon emissions decreased; whereas no decoupling effect was identified in 2003 and 2004. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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