Temporal dynamics and drivers of landscape‐level spread by emerald ash borer
Temporal dynamics and drivers of landscape‐level spread by emerald ash borer
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白蜡虫景观水平传播的时间动态和驱动因素
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13613
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Marini, Lorenzo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ward, Samuel F.;Fei, Songlin;Liebhold, Andrew M.;Marini, Lorenzo
非本地昆虫对森林健康构成威胁，通常通过分层扩散进行传播，其中长距离跳跃导致范围扩张速度加快。量化传播模式和开发模型对于了解入侵驱动因素和预测未来入侵至关重要。我们研究了表征和预测白蜡螟 (EAB) 传播的模型的实用性，量化了传播的时间动态并确定了县级入侵风险的相关性。我们估计了 1997 年至 2018 年整个美国本土 EAB 传播的速率和频率以及长距离跳跃的长度，并将观察到的模式与模型预测进行了比较。然后在县一级开发了事件发生时间模型，以评估栖息地特征和繁殖压力对入侵风险的影响。最终模型用于预测整个美国本土的入侵风险。EAB 的范围扩展与模型预测非常吻合。在最初的建立阶段之后，范围扩张速度呈双相，在 2002 年左右转向更快的线性模式，然后从 2015 年开始下降。从 2003 年起，EAB 每年入侵 6-134 个新县，包括每年平均 14 次离散跳跃，平均距离为 93±7SEkm。传播风险与先前入侵地区的距离、人口密度以及农村森林中白蜡树和非白蜡树的密度呈正相关，但与温度呈负相关。合成和应用。在区域层面，白蜡螟的入侵似乎已进入饱和阶段，表明美国东部大多数高风险县已被入侵。尽管最近传播速度有所放缓，但靠近入侵地区且人口和树木密度较高的县遭受入侵的风险最大。总而言之，我们的研究结果提供了对白蜡螟范围扩张的历史和未来动态的深入了解，这可用于指导对能够频繁远距离扩散的潜在入侵者进行风险评估。
Non‐native insects pose threats to forest health and often spread via stratified dispersal in which long‐distance jumps cause elevated rates of range expansion. Quantifying patterns and developing models of spread are central to understanding drivers of invasion and forecasting future invasions.We investigated the utility of models for characterizing and predicting spread of emerald ash borer (EAB), quantified temporal dynamics of spread and identified correlates of county‐level invasion risk.We estimated rates and frequency of EAB spread and length of long‐distance jumps throughout the contiguous USA from 1997 to 2018 and compared observed patterns with model predictions. A time‐to‐event model was then developed at the county level to assess the influence of habitat characteristics and propagule pressure on invasion risk. The final model was used to forecast invasion risk across the contiguous USA.Range expansion by EAB accorded well with model predictions. Following the initial establishment phase, range expansion rates were biphasic, shifting to a faster, linear pattern around 2002 and then declining from 2015 onwards. From 2003 onwards, EAB invaded 6–134 new counties per year, including a mean of 14 discrete jumps per year averaging 93 ± 7SEkm.Risk of spread was positively associated with proximity to previously invaded areas, human population density and densities of ash and non‐ash trees in rural forests but negatively associated with temperature.Synthesis and applications. At the regional level, the invasion by emerald ash borer appears to be entering the saturation phase, indicating that most high‐risk counties in the eastern USA have been invaded. Even though spread has recently slowed, counties in close proximity to invaded areas and that have high densities of humans and trees are at the greatest risk of becoming invaded. Taken together, our findings provide insight into historical and future dynamics of range expansion by emerald ash borer, which can be used to guide risk assessments for potential invaders capable of frequent long‐distance dispersal.
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模拟城市地区外来森林昆虫与树木覆盖和繁殖压力的空间建立模式
DOI：
10.1603/ec09203
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Manuel Colunga;R. Haack;Roger Magarey;M. Margosian
通讯作者：
M. Margosian
觅食行为和寄主空间分布对白蜡螟局部扩散的影响
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
R. Mercader;N. Siegert;Andrew M. Liebhold;D. McCullough
通讯作者：
D. McCullough
估计最近出现的白蜡螟 (Agrilus planipennis) 的局部传播、侵扰以及内吸性杀虫剂和环带白蜡树对其影响的潜力
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
R. Mercader;D. McCullough;A. Storer;J. M. Bedford;R. Heyd;N. Siegert;S. Katovich;T. Poland
通讯作者：
T. Poland
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2012.2373
发表时间：
2013-02-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Haynes, Kyle J.;Bjornstad, Ottar N.;Liebhold, Andrew M.
通讯作者：
Liebhold, Andrew M.
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Morin, Randall S.;Liebhold, Andrew M.;Crocker, Susan J.
通讯作者：
Crocker, Susan J.