Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts.
Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2014279117
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发表时间：
2020-11-10
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Finkelstein A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Polyakova M;Kocks G;Udalova V;Finkelstein A
全面了解COVID-19疫情需要了解其对不同群体的生活和生计的影响。因此，我们估计了2020年4月全国范围内的超额全因死亡率和就业流离失所率，并按州和年龄组分别进行了估计。大流行病造成的初步经济损失在各群体中比死亡更为普遍，死亡主要集中在少数几个州和最年长的老人中。虽然死亡率上升最多的两个州占全国超额死亡率的一半左右，但这两个受经济影响最严重的州只占全国经济损失的7%。这些研究结果表明，遏制这一流行病的政策反应涉及不同人口和地理群体之间的权衡。COVID-19疫情对经济及死亡率的影响已被广泛讨论，但有关其在人口及地理组别之间的关系的证据有限。我们使用2011年1月至2020年4月的公开月度数据，来自疾病控制和预防中心的全因死亡人数和当前人口调查的就业人数，以估计2020年4月美国的超额全因死亡率和就业流离失所。我们按州和年龄组分别在全国范围内报告结果。在全国范围内，超额全因死亡率为每10，000人2.4人（比4月份报告的COVID死亡人数高出约30%），就业流离失所率为每100人9.9人。在25岁及以上的年龄组中，超额死亡率与经济损失呈负相关;超额死亡率在年龄最大的人群中最高（85岁及以上的个人：每10 000人39.0人），而失业率在最年轻的人群中最高（25至44岁的个人：每100人11.6人）。在各州，就业转移与超额死亡率呈正相关（相关系数= 0.29）。然而，死亡率在地理上高度集中，最高的两个州（纽约和新泽西）每10 000人中有10多人死亡，约占全国死亡率的一半。相比之下，就业流离失所的地理分布更广，点估计最大的州（内华达州和密歇根州）每个州都经历了超过16个百分点的就业流离失所，但仅占全国流离失所人数的7%。这些结果表明，政策反应可能会对世代和地域产生不同的影响。
A full picture of the COVID-19 pandemic requires information on how its impact on lives and on livelihoods relates across different groups. We therefore estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 nationally and separately by state and by age group. Initial economic damages from the pandemic are more widespread across groups than deaths, which were primarily concentrated in a few states and among the oldest old. While the two states with the largest mortality increase account for about half of national excess mortality, the two most economically affected states account for only 7% of national economic damages. These findings suggest that policy responses to contain the pandemic involve trade-offs across different demographic and geographic groups. The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and employment from the Current Population Survey to estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 in the United States. We report results nationally and separately by state and by age group. Nationally, excess all-cause mortality was 2.4 per 10,000 individuals (about 30% higher than reported COVID deaths in April) and employment displacement was 9.9 per 100 individuals. Across age groups 25 y and older, excess mortality was negatively correlated with economic damage; excess mortality was largest among the oldest (individuals 85 y and over: 39.0 per 10,000), while employment displacement was largest among the youngest (individuals 25 to 44 y: 11.6 per 100 individuals). Across states, employment displacement was positively correlated with excess mortality (correlation = 0.29). However, mortality was highly concentrated geographically, with the top two states (New York and New Jersey) each experiencing over 10 excess deaths per 10,000 and accounting for about half of national excess mortality. By contrast, employment displacement was more geographically spread, with the states with the largest point estimates (Nevada and Michigan) each experiencing over 16 percentage points employment displacement but accounting for only 7% of the national displacement. These results suggest that policy responses may differentially affect generations and geographies.
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影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Ruhm, CJ
通讯作者：
Ruhm, CJ
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Ruhm, Christopher J.
通讯作者：
Ruhm, Christopher J.
影响因子：
13.7
作者：
Ruhm, CJ
通讯作者：
Ruhm, CJ
DOI：
10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2020.104988
发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Desai, Shashvat M.;Guyette, Francis X.;Jadhav, Ashutosh P.
通讯作者：
Jadhav, Ashutosh P.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2004911117
发表时间：
2020-05-05
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Dowd, Jennifer Beam;Andriano, Liliana;Mills, Melinda C.
通讯作者：
Mills, Melinda C.