Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments
Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments
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气候对生命率的延迟影响导致亚马逊森林碎片的人口差异
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15900
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Bruna, Emilio M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Scott, Eric R.;Uriarte, María;Bruna, Emilio M.
砍伐森林往往造成的景观是，剩余的森林栖息地高度分散，不同大小的残余嵌入在一个往往是高度对比的矩阵。局部灭绝的物种从个别片段是常见的，但这些灭绝背后的人口机制知之甚少。人们经常假设，碎片中环境条件的改变会导致繁殖、招募或生存率的下降。亚马逊河流域除了经历持续的分裂之外，还经历着与气候变化有关的干旱频率和强度的增加以及异常潮湿的时期。热带森林片断中的植物种群是否特别容易受到极端降水的影响仍不清楚。大多数碎片植物的研究相对较短（1-6年），集中在一个单一的生活史阶段，并且通常不与连续森林中的种群进行比较。更少的研究考虑气候对人口动态率的延迟影响，尽管延迟影响在考虑它们的研究中很重要。使用十年的人口和气候数据，从一个实验片段化的景观在亚马逊河流域中部，我们评估气候对人口的影响林下草本植物（Heliconia acuminata，Heliconiaceae）。我们使用分布滞后非线性模型来了解气候（标准化降水蒸散指数，SPEI）对生存，生长和开花的延迟影响。我们发现气候的延迟影响长达36个月。极端在SPEI在前一年减少生存，干旱在雨季8-11个月之前的2月人口普查增加增长，干旱两个旱季之前增加开花的概率。极端降水对生存和生长的影响在森林片段相比，连续森林更明显。在我们的研究中，气候和栖息地破碎化的复杂延迟效应表明了长期人口统计学实验在理解人为变化对植物种群影响方面的重要性。
Deforestation often results in landscapes where remaining forest habitat is highly fragmented, with remnants of different sizes embedded in an often highly contrasting matrix. Local extinction of species from individual fragments is common, but the demographic mechanisms underlying these extinctions are poorly understood. It is often hypothesized that altered environmental conditions in fragments drive declines in reproduction, recruitment, or survivorship. The Amazon basin, in addition to experiencing continuing fragmentation, is experiencing climate change‐related increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and unusually wet periods. Whether plant populations in tropical forest fragments are particularly susceptible to extremes in precipitation remains unclear. Most studies of plants in fragments are relatively short (1–6 years), focus on a single life‐history stage, and often do not compare to populations in continuous forest. Even fewer studies consider delayed effects of climate on demographic vital rates despite the importance of delayed effects in studies that consider them. Using a decade of demographic and climate data from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the Central Amazon, we assess the effects of climate on populations of an understory herb (Heliconia acuminata, Heliconiaceae). We used distributed lag nonlinear models to understand the delayed effects of climate (measured as standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) on survival, growth, and flowering. We detected delayed effects of climate up to 36 months. Extremes in SPEI in the previous year reduced survival, drought in the wet season 8–11 months prior to the February census increased growth, and drought two dry seasons prior increased flowering probability. Effects of extremes in precipitation on survival and growth were more pronounced in forest fragments compared to continuous forest. The complex delayed effects of climate and habitat fragmentation in our study point to the importance of long‐term demography experiments in understanding the effects of anthropogenic change on plant populations.
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影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Haddad NM;Brudvig LA;Clobert J;Davies KF;Gonzalez A;Holt RD;Lovejoy TE;Sexton JO;Austin MP;Collins CD;Cook WM;Damschen EI;Ewers RM;Foster BL;Jenkins CN;King AJ;Laurance WF;Levey DJ;Margules CR;Melbourne BA;Nicholls AO;Orrock JL;Song DX;Townshend JR
通讯作者：
Townshend JR
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
1999
期刊：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Zartman;J. A. Amaral;J. N. Figueiredo;Cristian Sales Dambros
通讯作者：
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