How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?
How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0068823
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Chuine I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gritti ES;Gaucherel C;Crespo-Perez MV;Chuine I
今天，比以往任何时候都更需要对潜在的物种分布范围变化进行强有力的预测，以预测和减轻气候变化对生物多样性和生态系统服务的影响。到目前为止，这种预测几乎完全是由相关物种分布模型提供的。然而，人们越来越担心其预测能力的可靠性，一些作者呼吁开发基于过程的空间数据模型。尽管如此，这些方法中的每一种都存在优点和缺点，如果要被决策者可靠地使用，就必须对其进行估计。在这项研究中，我们比较了三种不同的SDM（STASH，LPJ和PHENOFIT）的预测，这些SDM位于相关模型和基于过程的模型之间的连续体中，用于三种主要欧洲树种的当前分布， 欧洲水青冈， 青冈和 樟子松L.我们使用创新的比较地图配置文件的方法，集成本地和多尺度比较模型模拟的一致性。这三个模型相对准确地模拟了三种物质的电流分布。基于过程的模型表现几乎以及相关模型，虽然前者的参数不适合所观察到的物种分布。根据我们的模拟，物种的范围限制触发，在欧洲范围内，通过建立和生存的过程主要涉及到物候和非生物胁迫的抗性，而不是生长效率。然而，混合和基于过程的模型预测的准确性可以通过整合更现实的物种对水分胁迫的抵抗力来提高，例如，倡导努力理解和明确制定气候条件和变化对这些过程的影响。
Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT) that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus robur L. and Pinus sylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.
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影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Gritti, ES;Smith, B;Sykes, MT
通讯作者：
Sykes, MT
DOI：
10.1051/agro:2004038
发表时间：
2004-09-01
期刊：
AGRONOMIE
影响因子：
--
作者：
de Noblet-Ducoudré, N;Gervois, S;Perrier, A
通讯作者：
Perrier, A
DOI：
10.1109/tgrs.2008.919379
发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Gaucherel, Cedric;Alleaume, Samuel;Hely, Christelle
通讯作者：
Hely, Christelle
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Gritti, Emmanuel S.;Duputie, Anne;Chuine, Isabelle
通讯作者：
Chuine, Isabelle
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Haxeltine, A;Prentice, IC
通讯作者：
Prentice, IC