Characterizing the deep uncertainties surrounding coastal flood hazard projections: A case study for Norfolk, VA
Characterizing the deep uncertainties surrounding coastal flood hazard projections: A case study for Norfolk, VA
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描述沿海洪水灾害预测的深层不确定性：弗吉尼亚州诺福克的案例研究
作者：
Kelsey L. Ruckert;Vivek Srikrishnan;K. Keller
沿海规划者和决策者根据危险预测设计风险管理战略。然而，预测可能会有很大不同。是什么导致了这种差异？决策者(S)应该采取什么预测来制定计划和适应努力，以提高沿海的复原力？以弗吉尼亚州诺福克市为例，我们通过描述和量化已公布的海平面上升和风暴潮预测之间差异的驱动因素，以及这些差异如何影响提高海岸韧性的努力，来解决这些问题。我们发现，关于冰盖复杂行为的假设是洪水风险多样性的主要驱动因素。采用单一的危险预测忽略了关键的不确定性，并可能导致过度自信的预测和向下偏向的危险估计。这些结果强调了提高风险预测的有用性以为决策提供信息的关键途径，例如(I)表示复杂的冰盖行为，(Ii)覆盖本世纪以后与决策相关的时间尺度，(Iii)解决风暴潮发生的可能性很低(例如，每年0.2%)的问题，(Iv)考虑到风暴潮预测可能偏离历史记录，以及(V)传达相当大的深度不确定性。
Coastal planners and decision makers design risk management strategies based on hazard projections. However, projections can differ drastically. What causes this divergence and which projection(s) should a decision maker adopt to create plans and adaptation efforts for improving coastal resiliency? Using Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study, we start to address these questions by characterizing and quantifying the drivers of differences between published sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and how these differences can impact efforts to improve coastal resilience. We find that assumptions about the complex behavior of ice sheets are the primary drivers of flood hazard diversity. Adopting a single hazard projection neglects key uncertainties and can lead to overconfident projections and downwards biased hazard estimates. These results highlight key avenues to improve the usefulness of hazard projections to inform decision-making such as (i) representing complex ice sheet behavior, (ii) covering decision-relevant timescales beyond this century, (iii) resolving storm surges with a low chance of occurring (e.g., a 0.2% chance per year), (iv) considering that storm surge projections may deviate from the historical record, and (v) communicating the considerable deep uncertainty.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Jevrejeva, S.;Grinsted, A.;Moore, J. C.
通讯作者：
Moore, J. C.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Slangen, A. B. A.;Carson, M.;Stammer, D.
通讯作者：
Stammer, D.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Sadegh, Mojtaba;Moftakhari, Hamed;Gupta, Hoshin V.;Ragno, Elisa;Mazdiyasni, Omid;Sanders, Brett;Matthew, Richard;AghaKouchak, Amir
通讯作者：
AghaKouchak, Amir