Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.
Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.
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欧洲鸟类的局部殖民和灭绝很难用气候适宜性的变化来解释。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
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发表时间：
2023-07-20
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Willis, Stephen G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Howard, Christine;Marjakangas, Emma-Liina;Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra;Milanesi, Pietro;Abuladze, Aleksandre;Aghababyan, Karen;Ajder, Vitalie;Arkumarev, Volen;Balmer, Dawn E.;Bauer, Hans-Guenther;Beale, Colin M.;Bino, Taulant;Boyla, Kerem Ali;Burfield, Ian J.;Burke, Brian;Caffrey, Brian;Chodkiewicz, Tomasz;Del Moral, Juan Carlos;Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic;Fernandez, Nestor;Fornasari, Lorenzo;Gerlach, Bettina;Godinho, Carlos;Herrando, Sergi;Ieronymidou, Christina;Johnston, Alison;Jovicevic, Mihailo;Kalyakin, Mikhail;Keller, Verena;Knaus, Peter;Kotrosan, Drazen;Kuzmenko, Tatiana;Leito, Domingos;Lindstroem, Ake;Maxhuni, Qenan;Mihelic, Tomaz;Mikuska, Tibor;Molina, Blas;Nagy, Karoly;Noble, David;Olen, Ingar Jostein;Paquet, Jean-Yves;Pladevall, Clara;Portolou, Danae;Radisic, Dimitrije;Rajkov, Sasa;Rajkovic, Drazenko Z.;Raudonikis, Liutauras;Sattler, Thomas;Saveljic, Darko;Shimmings, Paul;Sjenicic, Jovica;Stastny, Karel;Stoychev, Stoycho;Strus, Iurii;Sudfeldt, Christoph;Sultanov, Elchin;Szep, Tibor;Teufelbauer, Norbert;Uzunova, Danka;van Turnhout, Chris A. M.;Velevski, Metodija;Vikstrom, Thomas;Vintchevski, Alexandre;Voltzit, Olga;Vorisek, Petr;Wilk, Tomasz;Zurell, Damaris;Brotons, Lluis;Lehikoinen, Aleksi;Willis, Stephen G.
气候变化与物种分布范围在纬度和海拔上的变化都有关系。然而，气候变化与其他可能的驱动因素相比，在多大程度上推动了近期的分布范围变化仍不确定。在此，我们利用378种欧洲繁殖鸟类30多年来分布的变化，来探究近期分布动态的可能驱动因素，同时考虑气候、土地覆盖、其他环境变量以及物种特性对局部定居和灭绝概率的影响。平均而言，物种分布范围每年移动2.4千米。然而，由于气候和土地覆盖的变化，这些移动与预期有显著差异。我们发现局部定居和灭绝事件主要受初始气候条件和物种分布范围特性的影响。相比之下，这一时期气候适宜性的变化则不那么重要。这凸显了在预测物种分布范围的未来变化时仅使用气候和土地覆盖的局限性，并强调需要综合的、多预测因子的方法以进行更可靠的预测。
物种分布范围变化的预测通常基于气候和土地覆盖变量。在此，作者利用鸟类的长期记录表明，考虑气候和土地覆盖的物种分布模型往往无法预测观察到的分布范围变化。
Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. Species’ range shifts projections are usually based on climate and land cover variables. Here, the authors use long-term records for bird species to show that species distribution models accounting for climate and land cover often fail to predict observed range shifts.
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影响因子：
30.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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