Assessing K-12 school reopenings under different COVID-19 Spread scenarios - United States, school year 2020/21: A retrospective modeling study.
Assessing K-12 school reopenings under different COVID-19 Spread scenarios - United States, school year 2020/21: A retrospective modeling study.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100632
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发表时间：
2022-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Del Valle, Sara Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Germann, Timothy C.;Smith, Manhong Z.;Dauelsberg, Lori R.;Fairchild, Geoffrey;Turton, Terece L.;Gorris, Morgan E.;Ross, Chrysm Watson;Ahrens, James P.;Hemphill, Daniel D.;Manore, Carrie A.;Del Valle, Sara Y.
关键词：
学龄儿童在流感等空气传播病毒的传播中发挥着关键作用，因为他们在学校环境中长期密切接触。因此，建议将关闭学校和其他非药物干预措施作为应对新型冠状病毒大流行（COVID-19）的第一道防线。我们使用了一个基于代理的模型，模拟了美国各地的社区，包括日托，小学和中学，以量化2020年8月15日至2021年4月11日期间重新开放学校的相对健康结果。我们的模拟于2020年9月初进行，并基于美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）于2020年5月发布的最新（当时）流行病规划情景。我们探索了不同的重新开放方案，包括虚拟学习，面对面的学校，以及几种混合选项，将学生群体分层为队列，以减少暴露和病原体传播。学生群体以非重叠形式返回学校的情景，我们称之为混合情景，导致有COVID-19症状的个人比例大幅下降，降幅高达75%。与实施100%虚拟学习场景相比，这些混合场景对COVID-19的负面健康影响仅略大。在模拟的八个月期间，混合情景可以显著避免全国范围内的COVID-19病例数量-大约在2800万至6000万之间，具体取决于墨西哥城。我们发现，模拟结果高度依赖于假设对面对面业务开放的工作场所数量，以及模拟社区内COVID-19发病率的初始水平。在不断演变的大流行病中，虽然很大一部分人仍然容易感染，但减少上学的学生人数会带来更好的健康结果;非全日制课堂教育大大降低了健康风险。
School-age children play a key role in the spread of airborne viruses like influenza due to the prolonged and close contacts they have in school settings. As a result, school closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions were recommended as the first line of defense in response to the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). We used an agent-based model that simulates communities across the United States including daycares, primary, and secondary schools to quantify the relative health outcomes of reopening schools for the period of August 15, 2020 to April 11, 2021. Our simulation was carried out in early September 2020 and was based on the latest (at the time) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Pandemic Planning Scenarios released in May 2020. We explored different reopening scenarios including virtual learning, in-person school, and several hybrid options that stratify the student population into cohorts in order to reduce exposure and pathogen spread. Scenarios where cohorts of students return to school in non-overlapping formats, which we refer to as hybrid scenarios, resulted in significant decreases in the percentage of symptomatic individuals with COVID-19, by as much as 75%. These hybrid scenarios have only slightly more negative health impacts of COVID-19 compared to implementing a 100% virtual learning scenario. Hybrid scenarios can significantly avert the number of COVID-19 cases at the national scale–approximately between 28 M and 60 M depending on the scenario–over the simulated eight-month period. We found the results of our simulations to be highly dependent on the number of workplaces assumed to be open for in-person business, as well as the initial level of COVID-19 incidence within the simulated community. In an evolving pandemic, while a large proportion of people remain susceptible, reducing the number of students attending school leads to better health outcomes; part-time in-classroom education substantially reduces health risks.
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