A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation.
A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation.
复制标题
SARS传播的双流行模型。
DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-3-19
复制
发表时间：
2003-09-10
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Danchin, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ng, TW;Turinici, G;Danchin, A
由新型冠状病毒引起的严重急性呼吸系统综合症（SARS）疫情已从广东省蔓延到中国其他地区乃至世界各地，其传染行为令人费解。确定这种行为的原因对于预测当前疫情的未来和实施有效的预防措施都很重要。在本报告中，我们首先表明标准的易感感染去除（SIR）模型无法解释在疾病传播的各个地区观察到的模式。我们开发了一个涉及两种叠加流行病的模型来研究最近非典在香港和该地区的传播情况。我们探讨了这些流行病可能是由一种病毒和一个或多个改变其向性的突变体引起的，也可能是由两种不相关的病毒引起的。这对未来产生了重要影响：这种无害的流行病可能仍然存在，并时不时地产生具有与 SARS 类似特性的变种。我们发现，为了协调现有数据和疾病的传播，建议第一次较温和的疫情可以预防 SARS 是很方便的。那些没有经历过第一次疫情的地区，或者与非典同时受到影响的地区，受到的影响要大得多，受影响的人数比例也非常高。我们还发现数据似乎不一致的区域，表明它们不完整或没有反映对 SARS 患者的适当识别。最后，我们可以在模型的框架内确定流行病未来发展的限制，使我们能够确定可能有助于建立监测系统以跟踪流行病演变的标志。该模型还表明，大型水库中可能存在SARS前兆，促使天气转凉时采取预防措施。
An epidemic of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused by a new coronavirus has spread from the Guangdong province to the rest of China and to the world, with a puzzling contagion behavior. It is important both for predicting the future of the present outbreak and for implementing effective prophylactic measures, to identify the causes of this behavior. In this report, we show first that the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model cannot account for the patterns observed in various regions where the disease spread. We develop a model involving two superimposed epidemics to study the recent spread of the SARS in Hong Kong and in the region. We explore the situation where these epidemics may be caused either by a virus and one or several mutants that changed its tropism, or by two unrelated viruses. This has important consequences for the future: the innocuous epidemic might still be there and generate, from time to time, variants that would have properties similar to those of SARS. We find that, in order to reconcile the existing data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest that a first milder outbreak protected against the SARS. Regions that had not seen the first epidemic, or that were affected simultaneously with the SARS suffered much more, with a very high percentage of persons affected. We also find regions where the data appear to be inconsistent, suggesting that they are incomplete or do not reflect an appropriate identification of SARS patients. Finally, we could, within the framework of the model, fix limits to the future development of the epidemic, allowing us to identify landmarks that may be useful to set up a monitoring system to follow the evolution of the epidemic. The model also suggests that there might exist a SARS precursor in a large reservoir, prompting for implementation of precautionary measures when the weather cools down.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Ballesteros, ML;Sanchez, CM;Enjuanes, L
通讯作者：
Enjuanes, L
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13410-1
发表时间：
2003-05-24
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Donnelly CA;Ghani AC;Leung GM;Hedley AJ;Fraser C;Riley S;Abu-Raddad LJ;Ho LM;Thach TQ;Chau P;Chan KP;Lam TH;Tse LY;Tsang T;Liu SH;Kong JH;Lau EM;Ferguson NM;Anderson RM
通讯作者：
Anderson RM
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Haijema, BJ;Volders, H;Rottier, PJM
通讯作者：
Rottier, PJM
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
RASSCHAERT, D;DUARTE, M;LAUDE, H
通讯作者：
LAUDE, H
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
GARWES, DJ
通讯作者：
GARWES, DJ