Host contact structure is important for the recurrence of Influenza A
Host contact structure is important for the recurrence of Influenza A
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宿主接触结构对于甲型流感复发很重要
DOI：
10.1007/s00285-018-1263-5
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Yuan Sanling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jaramillo J M;Ma Junling;van den Driessche P;Yuan Sanling
甲型流感的一个重要特征是它能够通过抗原漂移逃避宿主免疫。一种引起大流行的新型甲型流感毒株赋予受感染个体完全免疫力。然而，当大流行毒株漂移时，这些人对随后季节性流行中漂移毒株的免疫力将下降。我们计算所需的免疫力下降，使复发是可能的。甲型流感的模型必须对疾病传播的接触结构做出假设。通过考虑局部稳定性的疾病的免费平衡通过计算的再生数，我们表明，经典的随机混合假设预测不切实际的大的免疫力下降之前，复发是可能的。我们改进了经典的随机混合假设，将接触网络结构。接触网络的一个复杂性是由最初的流行病引起的相关性。我们提供了一个新的解析推导这种相关性，并表明接触网络可能需要一个显着较小的损失免疫复发前。因此，我们的论文中的关键新见解是，在接触网络上，建立一个新的菌株是可能的，因为以前感染过的个体的免疫水平比通常使用的随机混合假设预测的要高得多。这表明，同学、同事和家庭成员等稳定的接触是流感在人群中传播的重要途径。
An important characteristic of influenza A is its ability to escape host immunity through antigenic drift. A novel influenza A strain that causes a pandemic confers full immunity to infected individuals. Yet when the pandemic strain drifts, these individuals will have decreased immunity to drifted strains in the following seasonal epidemics. We compute the required decrease in immunity so that a recurrence is possible. Models for influenza A must make assumptions on the contact structure on which the disease spreads. By considering local stability of the disease free equilibrium via computation of the reproduction number, we show that the classical random mixing assumption predicts an unrealistically large decrease of immunity before a recurrence is possible. We improve over the classical random mixing assumption by incorporating a contact network structure. A complication of contact networks is correlations induced by the initial pandemic. We provide a novel analytic derivation of such correlations and show that contact networks may require a dramatically smaller loss of immunity before recurrence. Hence, the key new insight in our paper is that on contact networks the establishment of a new strain is possible for much higher immunity levels of previously infected individuals than predicted by the commonly used random mixing assumption. This suggests that stable contacts like classmates, coworkers and family members are a crucial path for the spread of influenza in human populations.
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