In science we (should) trust: Expectations and compliance across nine countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In science we (should) trust: Expectations and compliance across nine countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0252892
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Wen R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bicchieri C;Fatas E;Aldama A;Casas A;Deshpande I;Lauro M;Parilli C;Spohn M;Pereira P;Wen R
COVID-19 大流行的规模和性质使公共卫生政策无法依赖强制执行。保持社交距离、戴口罩和待在家里成为自愿行为，并以他人的行为为条件。我们展示了在九个国家进行的大规模调查实验的结果，其中有代表性的人口样本。我们发现，经验期望（其他人做什么）和规范期望（其他人赞同什么）在合规性方面发挥着重要作用，超出了任何其他个人或群体特征的影响。在我们的小插图实验中，受访者评估了在假设的情况下与他们相似的人遵守社交距离和呆在家里的可能性。当个人的经验和规范期望较高时，受访者对小插图角色合规可能性的评估会上升 55%（相对于低期望条件）。当查看那些有高期望的人自我报告的合规性时，也得到了类似的结果。我们的结果取决于个人对政府和科学的信任。抱有很高的期望，在我们的小插曲实验中，信任科学的影响是巨大且显着的（合规可能性增加了 22%），在自我报告的合规性方面甚至更大（封锁前后分别增加了 76% 和 127%）。相比之下，信任政府只会产生有限的效果。在总体层面上，国家层面对科学而非政府的信任成为合规性的有力预测因素。
The magnitude and nature of the COVID-19 pandemic prevents public health policies from relying on coercive enforcement. Practicing social distancing, wearing masks and staying at home becomes voluntary and conditional on the behavior of others. We present the results of a large-scale survey experiment in nine countries with representative samples of the population. We find that both empirical expectations (what others do) and normative expectations (what others approve of) play a significant role in compliance, beyond the effect of any other individual or group characteristic. In our vignette experiment, respondents evaluate the likelihood of compliance with social distancing and staying at home of someone similar to them in a hypothetical scenario. When empirical and normative expectations of individuals are high, respondents’ evaluation of the vignette’s character’s compliance likelihood goes up by 55% (relative to the low expectations condition). Similar results are obtained when looking at self-reported compliance among those with high expectations. Our results are moderated by individuals’ trust in government and trust in science. Holding expectations high, the effect of trusting science is substantial and significant in our vignette experiment (22% increase in compliance likelihood), and even larger in self-reported compliance (76% and 127% increase before and after the lockdown). By contrast, trusting the government only generates modest effects. At the aggregate level, the country-level trust in science, and not in government, becomes a strong predictor of compliance.
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DOI：
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10.1073/pnas.1416587112
发表时间：
2015-02-24
影响因子：
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