The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in western Norway
The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in western Norway
复制标题
空间和时间模型分辨率在挪威西部洪水事件故事情节方法中的作用
DOI：
10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8636
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
K. Whan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Schaller;J. Sillmann;Malte Müller;R. Haarsma;W. Hazeleger;Trine Jahr Hegdahl;T. Kelder;G. V. D. van den Oord;A. Weerts;K. Whan
<p><span>一个物理的气候故事情节的方法是适用于秋季洪水事件造成的大气河流在挪威西海岸。目的是展示在模拟影响方面提高空间和时间分辨率的价值和挑战。所使用的模型链与业务上使用的模型链相同，例如发布洪水警报。因此，其产出为许多用户所熟悉，我们期望这将促进利益攸关方的参与。两个不同版本的水文模型运行表明，一方面，更高的空间分辨率之间的全球和区域模型是必要的，现实地模拟降水在这样一个山区的高空间变异性。另一方面，我们还表明，峰值流量的强度，只有捕捉现实与每小时的数据。较高分辨率的区域大气模式能够模拟这样一个事实，即随着大气河流的通过，一些山谷获得大量降水，而另一些则没有。然而，较粗分辨率的全球模式显示，在整个区域均匀的降水。将事件转换为未来会导致类似的结果：在某些集水区，未来的洪水可能比现在的洪水大50%，而在其他集水区，由于大气河流没有到达该集水区，因此没有发生任何事件。</span></p>
<p><span>A physical climate storyline approach is applied to an autumn flood event caused by an atmospheric river in the West Coast of Norway. The aim is to demonstrate the value and challenges of higher spatial and temporal resolution in simulating impacts. The modelling chain used is the same as the one used operationally, to issue flood warnings for example. Its output is therefore familiar to many users, which we expect will facilitate stakeholder engagement. Two different versions of a hydrological model are run to show that on the one hand, the higher spatial resolution between the global and regional model is necessary to realistically simulate the high spatial variability of precipitation in such a mountainous region. On the other hand we also show that the intensity of the peak streamflow is only captured realistically with hourly data. The higher resolution regional atmospheric model is able to simulate the fact that with the passage of an atmospheric river, some valleys receive high amounts of precipitation and others not. However, the coarser resolution global model shows uniform precipitation in the whole region. Translating the event into the future leads to similar results: while in some catchments, a future flood might be 50% larger than a present one, in others no event occurs because the atmospheric river does not hit that catchment.</span></p>
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Sillmann, J.;Kharin, V. V.;Bronaugh, D.
通讯作者：
Bronaugh, D.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Houska T;Kraft P;Chamorro-Chavez A;Breuer L
通讯作者：
Breuer L
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Otto, Friederike E. L.;Boyd, Emily;Allen, Myles R.
通讯作者：
Allen, Myles R.