The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?
The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?
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中国煤电前景：未来十年会趋于平稳吗？
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.025
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发表时间：
2016-11
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Hu Zheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yuan Jiahai;Lei Qi;Xiong Minpeng;Guo Jingsheng;Hu Zheng
煤电在中国发电结构中占主导地位，导致生态环境问题日益严重；因此，电力行业的发展面临着一系列新的挑战。中国最近采用了“经济新常态”的新经济原则，这对2020年之前的电力需求预测和发电规划产生了很大影响。本文根据中国的社会经济结构对电力需求进行了测算。2020年路线图提出了中国为满足新需求而配置能源的发展目标，2030年路线图则是基于雄心勃勃的清洁能源扩张而编制的。结果表明，预计2020年电力需求将达到7500太瓦时，2030年将达到9730太瓦时。煤电预计将在2020年达到峰值，约为970吉瓦，然后将进入平稳期，即使有主动电力替代的途径。
Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.
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