Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change.
Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-40601-6
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发表时间：
2023-08-22
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Guest, James R. R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lachs, Liam;Donner, Simon D. D.;Mumby, Peter J. J.;Bythell, John C. C.;Humanes, Adriana;East, Holly K. K.;Guest, James R. R.
反复发生的大规模白化事件威胁着珊瑚礁的未来。为了在气候变化下生存，珊瑚需要忍受越来越强烈和频繁的海洋热浪，但它们的耐热性是否能跟上变暖的步伐仍是未知数。在这里，我们揭示了一个偏远的太平洋珊瑚礁系统的珊瑚组合的耐热性以0.1 °C/十年的速度紧急增加。这导致漂白的影响不太严重，否则将被预测，表明适应，驯化或社区结构的变化。使用未来的气候预测，我们表明，如果耐热性继续上升，在未来世纪在最有可能的历史速度，漂白轨迹大幅减少是可能的。在中低排放情景下，某些珊瑚礁的高频漂白可以得到充分缓解，但在高排放情景下只能推迟。总的来说，我们的研究结果表明了对气候变化的潜在生态适应力，但仍然强调了减少碳排放的必要性，以符合巴黎协定保护珊瑚礁的承诺。海洋热浪和大规模白化死亡事件威胁着热带珊瑚礁上珊瑚群落的持久性。这项研究表明，自1980年代后期以来，帕劳珊瑚群落的耐热性可能有所提高。如果全球碳排放量减少，这种生态恢复力可以减少未来的漂白影响。
Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs. Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.
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影响因子：
16.8
作者：
Hillebrand H;Donohue I;Harpole WS;Hodapp D;Kucera M;Lewandowska AM;Merder J;Montoya JM;Freund JA
通讯作者：
Freund JA
影响因子：
9.2
作者：
Hughes, Terry P.;Kerry, James T.;Moneghetti, Joanne
通讯作者：
Moneghetti, Joanne
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作者：
Dziedzic, Katherine E.;Elder, Holland;Meyer, Eli
通讯作者：
Meyer, Eli
影响因子：
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作者：
Bay, Rachael A.;Rose, Noah H.;Palumbi, Stephen R.
通讯作者：
Palumbi, Stephen R.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Ainsworth, Tracy D.;Heron, Scott F.;Leggat, William
通讯作者：
Leggat, William