Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.
Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.
复制标题
建模昆士兰州的牛群免疫要求：SARS-COV-2的疫苗接种有效性，犹豫和变体的影响。
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2021.0311
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发表时间：
2022-10-03
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Roberts, James A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sanz-Leon, Paula;Hamilton, Lachlan H. W.;Raison, Sebastian J.;Pan, Anna J. X.;Stevenson, Nathan J.;Stuart, Robyn M.;Abeysuriya, Romesh G.;Kerr, Cliff C.;Lambert, Stephen B.;Roberts, James A.
关键词：
SARS-CoV-2疫情的长期控制取决于有效疫苗的广泛覆盖。在澳大利亚，两剂疫苗接种覆盖率达到了成人人口的90%以上。然而，在2020年8月至2021年8月期间，犹豫情绪大幅波动。这就提出了一个问题，即自然产生的免疫力较低的地区，如昆士兰州，已知2020年感染人数不到人口的比例，是否可以实现对2021年关注变种的群体免疫力。为了解决这个问题，我们使用了基于代理的Covasim模型。我们模拟了爆发场景（Alpha、Delta和Omicron变体），并假设正在进行的干预措施（测试、追踪、隔离和隔离）。我们使用两种具有不同现实程度的方法对疫苗接种进行建模。犹豫是用澳大利亚的调查数据建模的。我们发现，疫苗对感染的有效性为80%，有可能控制阿尔法病毒的爆发，但不能控制德尔塔病毒或欧米克隆病毒。在90%的有效性下，德尔塔病毒的爆发可能是可以预防的，但欧米克隆病毒的爆发却无法预防。我们还估计，犹豫率从20%下降到14%，感染、住院和死亡人数减少了30%以上。总的来说，我们证明，虽然群体免疫可能无法实现，但适度减少犹豫和增加疫苗摄取可能会大大改善健康结果。这篇文章是主题“模拟现实生活中的流行病的技术挑战和克服这些挑战的例子”的一部分。
Long-term control of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks depends on the widespread coverage of effective vaccines. In Australia, two-dose vaccination coverage of above 90% of the adult population was achieved. However, between August 2020 and August 2021, hesitancy fluctuated dramatically. This raised the question of whether settings with low naturally derived immunity, such as Queensland where less than of the population is known to have been infected in 2020, could have achieved herd immunity against 2021’s variants of concern. To address this question, we used the agent-based model Covasim. We simulated outbreak scenarios (with the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants) and assumed ongoing interventions (testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine). We modelled vaccination using two approaches with different levels of realism. Hesitancy was modelled using Australian survey data. We found that with a vaccine effectiveness against infection of 80%, it was possible to control outbreaks of Alpha, but not Delta or Omicron. With 90% effectiveness, Delta outbreaks may have been preventable, but not Omicron outbreaks. We also estimated that a decrease in hesitancy from 20% to 14% reduced the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths by over 30%. Overall, we demonstrate that while herd immunity may not be attainable, modest reductions in hesitancy and increases in vaccine uptake may greatly improve health outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
Gomes MGM;Ferreira MU;Corder RM;King JG;Souto-Maior C;Penha-Gonçalves C;Gonçalves G;Chikina M;Pegden W;Aguas R
通讯作者：
Aguas R
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Giordano G;Colaneri M;Di Filippo A;Blanchini F;Bolzern P;De Nicolao G;Sacchi P;Colaneri P;Bruno R
通讯作者：
Bruno R
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Britton, Tom;Ball, Frank;Trapman, Pieter
通讯作者：
Trapman, Pieter
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Chang SL;Cliff OM;Zachreson C;Prokopenko M
通讯作者：
Prokopenko M
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2035389
发表时间：
2021-02-04
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Baden LR;El Sahly HM;Essink B;Kotloff K;Frey S;Novak R;Diemert D;Spector SA;Rouphael N;Creech CB;McGettigan J;Khetan S;Segall N;Solis J;Brosz A;Fierro C;Schwartz H;Neuzil K;Corey L;Gilbert P;Janes H;Follmann D;Marovich M;Mascola J;Polakowski L;Ledgerwood J;Graham BS;Bennett H;Pajon R;Knightly C;Leav B;Deng W;Zhou H;Han S;Ivarsson M;Miller J;Zaks T;COVE Study Group
通讯作者：
COVE Study Group