Impact of travel between patches for spatial spread of disease.
Impact of travel between patches for spatial spread of disease.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11538-006-9169-6
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发表时间：
2007-05
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Wang L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsieh YH;van den Driessche P;Wang L
建立了一个多斑块模型，研究了不同疾病流行水平斑块间旅行对疾病空间传播的影响。沿着得到孤立的第i个斑块的基本再生数和斑块系统的基本再生数，即0.0。还给出了描述这些数之间关系的不等式。对于一个两补丁模型，一个高流行率补丁和一个低流行率补丁，获得的结果有关的依赖性，两个补丁之间的旅行率的100。对于与流感相关的参数值，这些结果表明，虽然禁止从低流行区到高流行区的传染性旅行总是有助于疾病控制，但仅禁止有症状的旅行者从高流行区到低流行区的旅行可能会在某些参数值范围内对疫情的遏制产生不利影响。此外，禁止受感染个体从高流行区到低流行区的所有旅行可能导致低流行区变得无病，而高流行区变得更加疾病流行，仅在该地区的感染人数就超过了没有边界控制的两个地区的感染人数之和。在所使用的参数值下，我们的研究结果表明，如果边界控制得到适当的实施，那么它可能有助于阻止疾病在斑块之间的空间传播。
A multipatch model is proposed to study the impact of travel on the spatial spread of disease between patches with different level of disease prevalence. The basic reproduction number for the ith patch in isolation is obtained along with the basic reproduction number of the system of patches, ℜ0. Inequalities describing the relationship between these numbers are also given. For a two-patch model with one high prevalence patch and one low prevalence patch, results pertaining to the dependence of ℜ0 on the travel rates between the two patches are obtained. For parameter values relevant for influenza, these results show that, while banning travel of infectives from the low to the high prevalence patch always contributes to disease control, banning travel of symptomatic travelers only from the high to the low prevalence patch could adversely affect the containment of the outbreak under certain ranges of parameter values. Moreover, banning all travel of infected individuals from the high to the low prevalence patch could result in the low prevalence patch becoming diseasefree, while the high prevalence patch becomes even more disease-prevalent, with the resulting number of infectives in this patch alone exceeding the combined number of infectives in both patches without border control. Under the set of parameter values used, our results demonstrate that if border control is properly implemented, then it could contribute to stopping the spatial spread of disease between patches.
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影响因子：
2.9
作者：
MCPEEK, MA;HOLT, RD
通讯作者：
HOLT, RD
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
HASTINGS, A
通讯作者：
HASTINGS, A
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Fulford, GR;Roberts, MG;Heesterbeek, JAP
通讯作者：
Heesterbeek, JAP
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0601266103
发表时间：
2006-04-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Germann, TC;Kadau, K;Macken, CA
通讯作者：
Macken, CA
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Wang, W;Zhao, XQ
通讯作者：
Zhao, XQ