Evaluating population viability and efficacy of conservation management using integrated population models
Evaluating population viability and efficacy of conservation management using integrated population models
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使用综合种群模型评估种群生存能力和保护管理的有效性
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13080
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Rhodes, ed., Jonathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Saunders, Sarah P.;Cuthbert, Francesca J.;Zipkin, Elise F.;Rhodes, ed., Jonathan
预测种群对环境条件或管理方案的反应是保护的一个基本挑战。正确考虑人口、环境和参数的不确定性对于预测人口趋势和最佳保护策略至关重要。我们开发了一个耦合的综合人口模型-贝叶斯人口生存力分析，以评估（1）人口增长率的影响（2）未来10年的种群生存能力;以及（3）联邦濒危五大湖笛鲷种群可能的管理策略的有效性。我们的模型综合了长期的种群调查，巢监测和标记数据，同时考虑了多种不确定性来源。我们通过一个平行的状态空间模型，将北美东部merlinsFalco columbarius（成年鸟的主要捕食者）的潜在丰度作为成年鸟生存的协变量，解释了一个不完全观察过程的影响。（即捕食压力）对种群生存能力的影响。平均普洛弗丰度从1993年的18对增加到2016年的75对，但年种群增长率（）预计为0.95（95% CI 0.72-1.12），表明10年内可能下降至67对。如果不考虑不断扩大的merlin人口，我们会得出结论，预测到2026年，普洛弗人口将增加（= 1.02; 95%CI 0.94-1.09）至91对。我们比较了四种保护方案：（1）没有建议的管理;（2）增加控制的小鸡捕食者（如鸦科，Laridae，哺乳动物）;（3）增加梅林控制;（4）同时小鸡捕食者和梅林控制。与零情景相比，小鸡捕食者控制将准灭绝概率从11.9%降低到8.7%，梅林控制将准灭绝概率降低了一半以上（3.5%），同时控制将准灭绝概率降低到2.6%。管道普洛弗恢复行动应考虑系统的捕食者控制，而不是目前的临时协议，特别是考虑到区域梅林丰度的预测增加。这种将综合种群模型与贝叶斯种群生存力分析相结合的方法，可以识别种群周期的限制因素，并评估保护决策的替代管理策略，这对于帮助受威胁种群的恢复具有很大的实用性。
Predicting population responses to environmental conditions or management scenarios is a fundamental challenge for conservation. Proper consideration of demographic, environmental and parameter uncertainties is essential for projecting population trends and optimal conservation strategies.We developed a coupled integrated population model‐Bayesian population viability analysis to assess the (1) impact of demographic rates (survival, fecundity, immigration) on past population dynamics; (2) population viability 10 years into the future; and (3) efficacy of possible management strategies for the federally endangered Great Lakes piping ploverCharadrius meloduspopulation.Our model synthesizes long‐term population survey, nest monitoring and mark–resight data, while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. We incorporated latent abundance of eastern North American merlinsFalco columbarius, a primary predator of adult plovers, as a covariate on adult survival via a parallel state‐space model, accounting for the influence of an imperfectly observed process (i.e. predation pressure) on population viability.Mean plover abundance increased from 18 pairs in 1993 to 75 pairs in 2016, but annual population growth () was projected to be 0.95 (95% CI 0.72–1.12), suggesting a potential decline to 67 pairs within 10 years. Without accounting for an expanding merlin population, we would have concluded that the plover population was projected to increase ( = 1.02; 95% CI 0.94–1.09) to 91 pairs by 2026. We compared four conservation scenarios: (1) no proposed management; (2) increased control of chick predators (e.g.Corvidae, Laridae, mammals); (3) increased merlin control; and (4) simultaneous chick predator and merlin control. Compared to the null scenario, chick predator control reduced quasi‐extinction probability from 11.9% to 8.7%, merlin control more than halved (3.5%) the probability and simultaneous control reduced quasi‐extinction probability to 2.6%.Synthesis and applications. Piping plover recovery actions should consider systematic predator control, rather than current ad hoc protocols, especially given the predicted increase in regional merlin abundance. This approach of combining integrated population models with Bayesian population viability analysis to identify limiting components of the population cycle and evaluate alternative management strategies for conservation decision‐making shows great utility for aiding recovery of threatened populations.
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期刊：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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