Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network.
Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep06682
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发表时间：
2014-10-20
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Reay DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Nijs PJ;Berry NJ;Wells GJ;Reay DS
小农户需要调整其做法以适应不断变化的气候，这一点已得到广泛认可，特别是在非洲。非洲适应气候变化的费用估计为每年200亿至300亿美元，但认捐的适应资金总额福尔斯远远低于这一要求。难以评估和监测何时实现适应，这是发放基于业绩的适应资金的主要障碍之一。为了证明贝叶斯信念网络在描述特定活动对气候变化适应能力的影响方面的潜力，我们开发了一个简单的模型，该模型结合了气候预测，当地环境数据，来自同行评审文献的信息和专家意见，以说明马拉维气候智能型农业活动带来的适应效益。这一新的方法可以评估不同土地利用活动对气候变化的脆弱性，并可用于确定适当的适应战略和量化所开展活动的生物物理适应效益。我们认为，多指标贝叶斯置信网络方法可以为广泛的应用提供对适应规划的见解，如果进一步探索，可以成为扩大适应融资的一系列重要催化剂的一部分。
The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to $30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance.
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