Quantifying the Population-Level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel: A Modeling Study.
Quantifying the Population-Level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel: A Modeling Study.
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DOI：
10.1093/ofid/ofac087
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Somekh, Eli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Somekh, Ido;KhudaBukhsh, Wasiur R.;Root, Elisabeth Dowling;Boker, Lital Keinan;Rempala, Grzegorz;Simoes, Eric A. F.;Somekh, Eli
估计现实世界的疫苗有效性具有挑战性，因为各种人口因素都会影响疫苗的有效性。我们的目的是评估 2021 年 1 月至 2 月期间以色列因 BNT162b2 mRNA 2019 冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 疫苗接种活动而导致的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 累积病例、住院治疗和死亡率在人群水平上的减少情况。使用了易感感染者恢复/清除 (SIR) 模型和动态生存分析 (DSA) 统计方法。从以色列卫生部获得的每日检测呈阳性的人数和接种疫苗剂量的人数被用来校准该模型。该模型使用从大流行前一阶段得出的值进行参数化，在此期间实施了类似的封锁和其他预防措施，以考虑这些预防措施对 COVID-19 传播的影响。我们的模型预测，在疫苗接种活动的前 2 个月内，总人口将减少 648 585 例 SARS-CoV-2 病例（75% 置信区间 [CI]，25 877–1 396 963）。避免因中度至重度病情住院的人数为 16 101 人（75% CI，2010-33 035），死亡人数预计减少 5123 人（75% CI，388-10 815）。在 0-19 岁儿童中，我们估计 SARS-CoV-2 病例减少了 163 436 例（75% CI，0-433 233），我们认为这是疫苗的间接影响。我们的结果表明，快速的疫苗接种活动避免了数十万新病例以及数千人住院和死亡，并可能避免了重大的医疗保健危机。
Estimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is challenging as a variety of population factors can impact vaccine effectiveness. We aimed to assess the population-level reduction in cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases, hospitalizations, and mortality due to the BNT162b2 mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign in Israel during January–February 2021. A susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) model and a Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA) statistical approach were used. Daily counts of individuals who tested positive and of vaccine doses administered, obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, were used to calibrate the model. The model was parameterized using values derived from a previous phase of the pandemic during which similar lockdown and other preventive measures were implemented in order to take into account the effect of these prevention measures on COVID-19 spread. Our model predicted for the total population a reduction of 648 585 SARS-CoV-2 cases (75% confidence interval [CI], 25 877–1 396 963) during the first 2 months of the vaccination campaign. The number of averted hospitalizations for moderate to severe conditions was 16 101 (75% CI, 2010–33 035), and reduction of death was estimated at 5123 (75% CI, 388–10 815) fatalities. Among children aged 0–19 years, we estimated a reduction of 163 436 (75% CI, 0–433 233) SARS-CoV-2 cases, which we consider to be an indirect effect of the vaccine. Our results suggest that the rapid vaccination campaign prevented hundreds of thousands of new cases as well as thousands of hospitalizations and fatalities and has probably averted a major health care crisis.
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影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Levine-Tiefenbrun, Matan;Yelin, Idan;Kishony, Roy
通讯作者：
Kishony, Roy
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Moore S;Hill EM;Dyson L;Tildesley MJ;Keeling MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling MJ
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Somekh, Ido;Sharabi, Assaf;Somekh, Eli
通讯作者：
Somekh, Eli
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00143-2
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Moore S;Hill EM;Tildesley MJ;Dyson L;Keeling MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling MJ
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Donauer, Stephanie;Payne, Daniel C.;Staat, Mary Allen
通讯作者：
Staat, Mary Allen