Human population growth and the demographic transition.
Human population growth and the demographic transition.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2009.0137
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发表时间：
2009-10-27
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bongaarts J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bongaarts J
世界和大多数区域和国家正在经历前所未有的快速人口变化。这一变化最明显的例子是人口数量的巨大扩张：自1950年以来增加了40亿。根据对下半个世纪的预测，世界将出现很大差异，发达世界部分地区将出现停滞或可能出现衰退，而最不发达地区将继续快速增长。其他人口进程也在发生巨大变化：妇女生育率迅速下降，预期寿命达到新高。过去的生育率和死亡率趋势导致发展中世界高生育率国家的人口非常年轻，而发达世界的人口日益老龄化。当代社会正处于人口结构转型的不同阶段。本文概述了这些转型期间人口规模、生育率和死亡率以及年龄结构的主要趋势。重点是从1950年到2050年的世纪，这一时期是全球人口变化最快的时期。
The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation.
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Bongaarts, John;Buettner, Thomas;Pelletier, Francois
通讯作者：
Pelletier, Francois
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Bongaarts, J;Bulatao, RA
通讯作者：
Bulatao, RA