Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks.

Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks.
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将网络理论应用于流行病:肺炎支原体暴发的控制措施。

DOI:
10.3201/eid0902.020188
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发表时间:
2003-02
影响因子:
11.8
通讯作者:
Schrag S
Schrag S
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Ancel Meyers L;Newman ME;Martin M;Schrag S

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我们引入了一种新颖的数学方法来研究封闭社区中传染病的传播和控制。肺炎支原体是美国细菌性肺炎的主要原因。支原体引起的疾病暴发通常发生在封闭或半封闭的社区中。由于疫情检测延迟、细菌潜伏期长以及对感染控制策略有效性的了解不完全,这些疫情难以遏制。我们的模型明确地捕捉了拥有多个病房的机构中患者和护理人员之间的互动模式。对这个接触网络的分析预测,尽管护理人员中支原体肺炎的患病率相对较低,但护理人员的活动模式和他们免受感染的程度可能对控制和预防支原体爆发至关重要。特别是,最有效的干预措施是减少护理人员和患者之间互动多样性的干预措施。
We introduce a novel mathematical approach to investigating the spread and control of communicable infections in closed communities. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the United States. Outbreaks of illness attributable to mycoplasma commonly occur in closed or semi-closed communities. These outbreaks are difficult to contain because of delays in outbreak detection, the long incubation period of the bacterium, and an incomplete understanding of the effectiveness of infection control strategies. Our model explicitly captures the patterns of interactions among patients and caregivers in an institution with multiple wards. Analysis of this contact network predicts that, despite the relatively low prevalence of mycoplasma pneumonia found among caregivers, the patterns of caregiver activity and the extent to which they are protected against infection may be fundamental to the control and prevention of mycoplasma outbreaks. In particular, the most effective interventions are those that reduce the diversity of interactions between caregivers and patients.
DOI: 10.1086/513818
发表时间: 1998-01-01
影响因子: 6.4
作者:
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